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Amgen (NAS:AMGN) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %

: 11.34% (As of Dec. 2023)
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Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Amgen's forward rate of return for was 11.34%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Amgen's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:

AMGN' s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 8.92   Med: 16.08   Max: 26.53
Current: 11.62

During the past 13 years, Amgen's highest Forward Rate of Return was 26.53. The lowest was 8.92. And the median was 16.08.

AMGN's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than
55.92% of 617 companies
in the Drug Manufacturers industry
Industry Median: 8.47 vs AMGN: 11.62

Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.


Amgen Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data

The historical data trend for Amgen's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Amgen Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 17.10 14.46 11.13 9.34 11.34

Amgen Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 9.34 10.26 11.84 11.45 11.34

Competitive Comparison

For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Amgen's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Amgen Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Amgen's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Amgen's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.



Amgen Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation

Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

Amgen's Forward Rate of Return of Dec. 2023 is

Forward Rate of Return=Normalized Free Cash Flow/Price+5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=15.24971429/288.02+0.0605
=11.34 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Amgen  (NAS:AMGN) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation

Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.


Be Aware

In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.


Amgen Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Amgen's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Amgen (NAS:AMGN) Business Description

Industry
Address
One Amgen Center Drive, Thousand Oaks, CA, USA, 91320-1799
Amgen is a leader in biotechnology-based human therapeutics. Flagship drugs include red blood cell boosters Epogen and Aranesp, immune system boosters Neupogen and Neulasta, and Enbrel and Otezla for inflammatory diseases. Amgen introduced its first cancer therapeutic, Vectibix, in 2006 and markets bone-strengthening drug Prolia/Xgeva (approved 2010) and Evenity (2019). The acquisition of Onyx bolstered the firm's therapeutic oncology portfolio with Kyprolis. Recent launches include Repatha (cholesterol-lowering), Aimovig (migraine), Lumakras (lung cancer), and Tezspire (asthma). The 2023 Horizon acquisition brings several rare disease drugs, including thyroid eye disease drug Tepezza. Amgen also has a growing biosimilar portfolio.
Executives
Nancy A. Grygiel officer: SVP & CCO ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Jonathan P Graham officer: SVP, Gen. Counsel & Secy. 2099 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, 12TH FLOOR, WASHINGTON DC 20006
Matthew C. Busch officer: VP, Finance & CAO ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Murdo Gordon officer: EVP Global Commercial Ops C/O BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY, 345 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Rachna Khosla officer: SVP, Business Development ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
R Sanders Williams director DUKE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE, TRENT DRIVE, DURHAM NC 27706
Robert Eckert director MATTEL, INC., 333 CONTINENTAL BLVD, M1-1518, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Michael V Drake director ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Derek Miller officer: SVP, Human Resources ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Omar Ishrak director 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY, MS LC300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Ronald D Sugar director 10877 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1650, LOS ANGELES CA 900274
Linda H. Louie officer: VP, Finance & CAO ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Amy E Miles director
David Piacquad officer: SVP, Business Development ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320-1799
Peter H. Griffith officer: EVP & CFO ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320