Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. O'Reilly Automotive's forward rate of return for was 23.74%.
The historical rank and industry rank for O'Reilly Automotive's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
ORLY'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 16.75 Med: 22.48 Max: 24.61
Current: 23.28
During the past 13 years, O'Reilly Automotive's highest Forward Rate of Return was 24.61. The lowest was 16.75. And the median was 22.48.
ORLY's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 75.34% of 738
companies
in the Retail - Cyclical industry
Industry Median: 12.14
vs ORLY: 23.28
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
O'Reilly Automotive Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
The historical data trend for O'Reilly Automotive's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
* Premium members only.
O'Reilly Automotive Annual Data
Trend
Dec12
Dec13
Dec14
Dec15
Dec16
Dec17
Dec18
Dec19
Dec20
Dec21
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
22.46
19.70
17.14
18.28
21.81
O'Reilly Automotive Quarterly Data
Sep17
Dec17
Mar18
Jun18
Sep18
Dec18
Mar19
Jun19
Sep19
Dec19
Mar20
Jun20
Sep20
Dec20
Mar21
Jun21
Sep21
Dec21
Mar22
Jun22
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
20.15
21.11
21.81
22.87
23.74
Competitive Comparison
For the Specialty Retail subindustry, O'Reilly Automotive's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
O'Reilly Automotive Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, O'Reilly Automotive's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where O'Reilly Automotive's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
O'Reilly Automotive Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
O'Reilly Automotive's Forward Rate of Return of Jun. 2022 is
Forward Rate of Return
=
Normalized Free Cash Flow
/
Price
+
5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=
23.86666667
/
631.76
+
0.1996
=
23.74 %
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
O'Reilly Automotive (NAS:ORLY) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
O'Reilly Automotive Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of O'Reilly Automotive's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
O'Reilly Automotive is one of the largest sellers of aftermarket automotive parts, tools, and accessories, serving professional and DIY customers (41% and 59% of 2021 sales, respectively). The company sells branded as well as own-label products, with the latter category comprising nearly half of sales. O'Reilly had 5,784 stores as of the end of 2021, spread across 47 U.S. states and including 25 stores in Mexico. The firm serves professional and DIY customers through its store network and also boasts approximately 750 sales personnel targeting commercial buyers.
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