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Shoe Carnival Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %

: 10.81% (As of Jul. 2021)
View and export this data going back to 1993. Start your Free Trial

Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Shoe Carnival's forward rate of return for was 10.81%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Shoe Carnival's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:

NAS:SCVL' s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.32   Med: 9.61   Max: 25.57
Current: 11.04

0.32
25.57

During the past 13 years, Shoe Carnival's highest Forward Rate of Return was 25.57. The lowest was 0.32. And the median was 9.61.

NAS:SCVL's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked lower than
81% of the 102 Companies
in the Retail - Cyclical industry.

( Industry Median: 13.53 vs. NAS:SCVL: 11.04 )

Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.


Shoe Carnival Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data

The historical data trend for Shoe Carnival's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Shoe Carnival Annual Data
Trend Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 8.97 9.56 14.42 16.38 1.92

Shoe Carnival Quarterly Data
Oct16 Jan17 Apr17 Jul17 Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 Jul18 Oct18 Jan19 Apr19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 10.79 5.36 1.92 5.79 10.81

Competitive Comparison

For the Apparel Retail subindustry, Shoe Carnival's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Shoe Carnival Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Shoe Carnival's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Shoe Carnival's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.



Shoe Carnival Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation

Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

Shoe Carnival's Forward Rate of Return of Jul. 2021 is

Forward Rate of Return=Normalized Free Cash Flow/Price+5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=1.87619048/33.7+0.0524
=10.81 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Shoe Carnival  (NAS:SCVL) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation

Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.


Be Aware

In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.


Shoe Carnival Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Shoe Carnival's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Shoe Carnival Business Description

Shoe Carnival logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical NAICS : 448210 SIC : 5661
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
7500 East Columbia Street, Evansville, IN, USA, 47715
Shoe Carnival Inc is a footwear retailer with hundreds of stores in the United States. It offers moderately priced, name-brand dress, casual, and athletic footwear for men, women, and children. Its average store has more than 27,000 pairs of shoes. The company promotes a shopping experience that includes contests, games, and a person on a stage with a microphone to announce limited-time specials. To enable its value-pricing strategy, Shoe Carnival minimizes staffing needs by housing all merchandise on the selling floor and leases store locations in open-air shopping centers. The company buys its merchandise from hundreds of vendors, with Nike and Skechers accounting for a substantial portion of total company sales. All merchandise goes through the company's distribution center in Indiana.
Executives
Sifford Clifton E director, officer: VICE CHAIRMAN & CEO PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SIFFORD CLIFTON E a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Baker Timothy T officer: EXEC. VP - CHIEF RETAIL PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: BAKER TIMOTHY T a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Tomm Charles B. director 201 N. FRANKLIN STREET SUITE 2800 TAMPA FL 33602
Scibetta Carl N. officer: EVP - CHIEF MERCHANDISE OFF. 7500 EAST COLUMBIA STREET EVANSVILLE IN 47715
Kleeberger Kent A director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: KLEEBERGER KENT A a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Aschleman James A director 300 N MERIDIAN ST STE 2700 INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Wood Joseph W director 4896 DEER RIDGE DRIVE SOUTH CARMEL IN 46033
Guthrie Andrea R. director 7500 EAST COLUMBIA STREET EVANSVILLE IN 47715
Jackson W Kerry officer: SENIOR EVP - CFO & CAO PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: JACKSON W KERRY a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Worden Mark J. officer: PRESIDENT & CHIEF CUSTOMER OFF 7500 E. COLUMBIA STREET EVANSVILLE IN 47715
Weaver Wayne J director, 10 percent owner, officer: CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD TWO STAMFORD PLAZA 281 TRESSER BLVD P O BOX 1214 STAMFORD CT 06904-1214
Weaver Delores B 10 percent owner TWO STAMFORD PLAZA 281 TRESSER BLVD P O BOX 1214 STAMFORD CT 06904-1214
Gerstel Jeffrey C director 933 MACARTHUR BOULEVARD MAHWAH NJ 07430
Yearwood Kathy A officer: SVP CONTROLLER/PAO 7500 EAST COLUMBIA STREET EVANSVILLE IN 47715
Schoor Gerald W director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SCHOOR GERALD W a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}

Shoe Carnival Headlines

Other Sources

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By Zacks 2020-07-15

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