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ConocoPhillips Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %

: 25.41% (As of Jun. 2022)
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Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. ConocoPhillips's forward rate of return for was 25.41%.

The historical rank and industry rank for ConocoPhillips's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:

COP' s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -48.95   Med: 3.47   Max: 26.63
Current: 25.06

During the past 13 years, ConocoPhillips's highest Forward Rate of Return was 26.63. The lowest was -48.95. And the median was 3.47.

COP's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than
85.25% of 583 companies
in the Oil & Gas industry
Industry Median: 6.38 vs COP: 25.06

Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.


ConocoPhillips Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data

The historical data trend for ConocoPhillips's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

ConocoPhillips Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -44.22 -15.28 22.25 25.03 23.91

ConocoPhillips Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 24.69 24.92 23.91 23.24 25.41

Competitive Comparison

For the Oil & Gas E&P subindustry, ConocoPhillips's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

ConocoPhillips Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, ConocoPhillips's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where ConocoPhillips's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.



ConocoPhillips Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation

Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

ConocoPhillips's Forward Rate of Return of Jun. 2022 is

Forward Rate of Return=Normalized Free Cash Flow/Price+5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=4.86057143/89.81+0.2
=25.41 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


ConocoPhillips  (NYSE:COP) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation

Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.


Be Aware

In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.


ConocoPhillips Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of ConocoPhillips's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


ConocoPhillips Business Description

ConocoPhillips logo
Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) » Definitions » Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
Address
925 North Eldridge Parkway, Houston, TX, USA, 77079
ConocoPhillips is a U.S.-based independent exploration and production firm. At the end of 2020, it produced 727,000 barrels per day of oil and natural gas liquids and 2.4 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas, primarily from Alaska and the Lower 48 in the United States and Norway in Europe and several countries in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. Proven reserves at year-end 2020 were 4.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
Executives
Harper Jack F officer: Executive Vice President SHIPPING & RECEIVING CENTER 16930 PARK ROW DR. HOUSTON TX 77084
Haynes Welsh Kontessa S officer: Chief Accounting Officer SHIPPING & RECEIVING 16930 PARK ROW DR. HOUSTON TX 77084
Sirdashney Heather G officer: Vice President SHIPPING & RECEIVING CENTER 16930 PARK ROW DR. HOUSTON TX 77084
Leach Timothy A director, officer: Executive Vice President 7220 MEADOW ROAD DALLAS TX 75230
Mullins Eric D. director HERITAGE PLAZA, 1111 BAGBY STREET SUITE 4600 HOUSTON TX 77002
Olds Nicholas G officer: Senior Vice President SHIPPING & RECEIVING CENTER 16930 PARK ROW DR. HOUSTON TX 77084
Walker R A director 1201 LAKE ROBBINS DRIVE THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Seaton David Thomas director 6700 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD IRVING TX 75039
Macklon Dominic E. officer: President SHIPPING & RECEIVING CENTER 16930 PARK ROW DR. HOUSTON TX 77084
Bullock William L. Jr. officer: President SHIPPING & RECEIVING CENTER 16930 PARK ROW DR. HOUSTON TX 77084
Hatfield Michael D. officer: President SHIPPING & RECEIVING CENTER 16930 PARK ROW DR. HOUSTON TX 77084
Brooks Catherine A. officer: VP & Controller SHIPPING & RECEIVING CENTER 16930 PARK ROW DR. HOUSTON TX 77084
Mcraven William H. director SHIPPING & RECEIVING CENTER 16930 PARK ROW DR. HOUSTON TX 77084
Rose Kelly Brunetti officer: SVP & General Counsel SHIPPING & RECEIVING CENTER 16930 PARK ROW DR. HOUSTON TX 77084
Joerres Jeffrey A director 5301 NORTH IRONWOOD ROAD MILWAUKEE WI 53217

ConocoPhillips Headlines

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