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Merck Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %

: 12.60% (As of Jun. 2022)
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Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Merck's forward rate of return for was 12.60%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Merck's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:

MRK' s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.62   Med: 4.28   Max: 19.54
Current: 12.67

During the past 13 years, Merck's highest Forward Rate of Return was 19.54. The lowest was -3.62. And the median was 4.28.

MRK's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than
58.88% of 591 companies
in the Drug Manufacturers industry
Industry Median: 9.55 vs MRK: 12.67

Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.


Merck Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data

The historical data trend for Merck's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Merck Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -0.05 -3.41 -3.19 7.42 8.40

Merck Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 4.84 5.53 8.40 10.24 12.60

Competitive Comparison

For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Merck's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Merck Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Merck's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Merck's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.



Merck Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation

Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

Merck's Forward Rate of Return of Jun. 2022 is

Forward Rate of Return=Normalized Free Cash Flow/Price+5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=3.34133333/91.17+0.0894
=12.60 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Merck  (NYSE:MRK) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation

Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.


Be Aware

In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.


Merck Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Merck's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Merck Business Description

Merck logo
Industry
Address
2000 Galloping Hill Road, Kenilworth, NJ, USA, 07033
Merck makes pharmaceutical products to treat several conditions in a number of therapeutic areas, including cardiometabolic disease, cancer, and infections. Within cancer, the firm's immuno-oncology platform is growing as a major contributor to overall sales. The company also has a substantial vaccine business, with treatments to prevent hepatitis B and pediatric diseases as well as HPV and shingles. Additionally, Merck sells animal health-related drugs. From a geographical perspective, close to half of the firm's sales are generated in the United States.
Executives
Baker Douglas M Jr director 370 WBASHA ST NORTH ST PAUL MN 55102
Oosthuizen Johannes Jacobus officer: SVP, U.S. Market 2000 GALLOPING HILL RD KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Garay Arpa officer: SVP Human Health Global Mktg. 2000 GALLOPING HILL RD KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Downing Cristal N officer: Chief Comm. & Public Afrs Ofcr 2000 GALLOPING HILL RD KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Klobuchar Michael A officer: EVP - Chief Strategy Officer 2000 GALLOPING HILL RD KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Lecointe-cephas Lisa officer: SVP Chief Ethics & Com Officer 2000 GALLOPING HILL RD KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Litchfield Caroline officer: EVP & CFO 2000 GALLOPING HILL RD KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Mayo Stephen director 2000 GALLOPING HILL RD KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Li Dean Y officer: Executive VP & President, MRL 2000 GALLOPING HILL ROAD KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Williams David Michael officer: EVP,Chief Info&Digital Officer MERCK & CO., INC. 2000 GALLOPING HILL ROAD KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Lavizzo-mourey Risa J director GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY 5 NECCO STREET BOSTON MA 02210
Seidman Christine E director MERCK & CO., INC. 2000 GALLOPING HILL ROAD KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Warden Kathy J director 2980 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE FALLS CHURCH VA 22042
Craig Pamela director C/O ACCENTURE 161 N CLARK STREET CHICAGO IL 60601
Brun Leslie A director 435 DEVON PARK DRIVE 700 BUILDING WAYNE PA 19087

Merck Headlines

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