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Toll Brothers Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %

: 30.30% (As of Apr. 2022)
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Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Toll Brothers's forward rate of return for was 30.30%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Toll Brothers's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:

TOL' s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.5   Med: 21.87   Max: 31.56
Current: 29.51

During the past 13 years, Toll Brothers's highest Forward Rate of Return was 31.56. The lowest was -2.50. And the median was 21.87.

TOL's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than
92.31% of 78 companies
in the Homebuilding & Construction industry
Industry Median: 13.90 vs TOL: 29.51

Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.


Toll Brothers Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data

The historical data trend for Toll Brothers's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Toll Brothers Annual Data
Trend Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct21
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 21.86 26.09 26.57 28.69 28.48

Toll Brothers Quarterly Data
Jul17 Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 Jul18 Oct18 Jan19 Apr19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 22.74 24.17 28.48 27.79 30.30

Competitive Comparison

For the Residential Construction subindustry, Toll Brothers's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Toll Brothers Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution

For the Homebuilding & Construction industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Toll Brothers's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Toll Brothers's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.



Toll Brothers Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation

Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

Toll Brothers's Forward Rate of Return of Apr. 2022 is

Forward Rate of Return=Normalized Free Cash Flow/Price+5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=5.01828571/46.37+0.1948
=30.30 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Toll Brothers  (NYSE:TOL) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation

Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.


Be Aware

In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.


Toll Brothers Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Toll Brothers's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Toll Brothers Business Description

Toll Brothers logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1140 Virginia Drive, Fort Washington, PA, USA, 19034
Toll Brothers is the leading luxury homebuilder in the United States with an average sale price well above public competitors'. The company operates in 60 markets across 24 states and caters to move-up, active-adult, and second-home buyers. Traditional homebuilding operations represent most of company's revenue. Toll Brothers also builds luxury for-sale and for-rent properties in urban centers across the U.S. It has its headquarters in Horsham, Pennsylvania.
Executives
Kan Derek T. director TOLL BROTHERS, INC. 1140 VIRGINIA DRIVE FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Stowell Scott D director
East Stephen F. director TOLL BROTHERS, INC. 1140 VIRGINIA DRIVE FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Parahus Robert officer: EVP,Co-Chief Operating Officer TOLL BROTHERS, INC. 1140 VIRGINIA DRIVE FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Boyd James W. officer: EVP,Co-Chief Operating Officer TOLL BROTHERS, INC. 1140 VIRGINIA DRIVE FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Mcdonald John K. officer: SVP, General Counsel TOLL BROTHERS, INC. 250 GIBRALTAR ROAD HORSHAM PA 19044
Grimes Karen H. director TOLL BROTHERS, INC. 1140 VIRGINIA DRIVE FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Pritchett Wendell E. director TOLL BROTHERS, INC. 1140 VIRGINIA DRIVE FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Grubb Michael J. officer: Chief Accounting Officer TOLL BROTHERS, INC. 1140 VIRGINIA DRIVE FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Mclean John A director TOLL BROTHERS, INC. 1140 GIBRALTAR ROAD FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Hartman Richard T. officer: Chief Operating Officer 250 GIBRALTAR ROAD HORSHAM PA 19044
Connor Martin P. officer: Chief Financial Officer 250 GIBRALTAR ROAD HORSHAM PA 19044
Yearley Douglas C. Jr. officer: Executive Vice President 250 GIBRALTAR ROAD HORSHAM PA 19044
Garvey Christine director 14100 E 35TH PLACE AURORA CO 80011
Boehne Edward G director 313 DEVON STATE ST DEVON PA 19333

Toll Brothers Headlines

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