Novartis AG (FRA:NOT) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share: €5.65 (As of Mar. 2026)

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FRA:NOT Novartis AG FRA:NOT
81 GF Score
Price €135.38
GF Value €113.05
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 7 Warning Signs
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What is Novartis AG Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

Novartis AG FRA:NOT +1.12% 81 Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is €5.65 as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus rates FRA:NOT with a GF Score™ of 81/100 and a GF Value™ of €113.05 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review.

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

Novartis AG's adjusted free cash flow per share for the three months ended in Mar. 2026 was €1.295. Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share for the past 10 years together and divide the count will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share, which is €5.65 for the trailing ten years ended in Mar. 2026.

During the past 12 months, Novartis AG's average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 6.30% per year. During the past 3 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 4.80% per year. During the past 5 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 4.40% per year. During the past 10 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 2.60% per year. Please click Growth Rate Calculation Example (GuruFocus) to see how GuruFocus calculates Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT)'s revenue growth rate. You can apply the same method to get the Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate using Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share data.

During the past 13 years, the highest 3-Year average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate of Novartis AG was 4.80% per year. The lowest was 0.50% per year. And the median was 1.80% per year.

As of today (2026-07-14), Novartis AG's current stock price is €135.38. Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2026 was €5.65. Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is 23.96.

During the past 13 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Novartis AG was 25.44. The lowest was 15.04. And the median was 18.32.


Novartis AG  (FRA:NOT) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Explanation

If a company grows much fast than inflation, Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share may underestimate the company's free cash flow. Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF can seem to be too high even the actual Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow is low.

For the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, the free cash flow per share of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/FCF calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF is also called CAPFCF Ratio.

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller. He uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings per share of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted free cash flow per share of a company over the past 10 years.

Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is calculated as

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF=Share Price/Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
=135.38/5.65
=23.96

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

During the past 13 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Novartis AG was 25.44. The lowest was 15.04. And the median was 18.32.


Be Aware

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF works better for cyclical companies. It gives you a better idea on the company's real free cash flow value.


Novartis AG Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Related Terms


Novartis AG Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Novartis AG Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Chart

Novartis AG Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 4.22 4.23 4.13 4.12 5.53

Novartis AG Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 3.80 5.48 5.68 5.53 5.65

FRA:NOT vs LLY, JNJ, ABBV: Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Comparison

For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Novartis AG Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF vs Drug Manufacturers Industry

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF falls into.


FRA:NOT
81GF Score
Novartis AG FRA:NOT
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Novartis AG Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Calculation

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

What is Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share? How do we calculate Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years. Let's use an example to explain.

If we want to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of Wal-Mart (WMT) for Dec. 31, 2010, we need to have the inflation data and the free cash flow per share from 2001 through 2010.

We adjusted the 2001 free cash flow per share data with the total inflation from 2001 through 2010 to the equivalent free cash flow in 2010. If the total inflation from 2001 to 2010 is 40%, and Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 a share in 2001, then the 2001's equivalent free cash flow in 2010 is $1.4 a share. If Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 again in 2002, and the total inflation from 2002 through 2010 is 35%, then the equivalent 2002 free cash flow in 2010 is $1.35. So on and so forth, you get the equivalent free cash flow per share of past 10 years. Then you add them together and divided the sum by the count to get Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

Please note that we use the CPI data of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the CPI data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the CPI data of the United States as default.

For example, Novartis AG's adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2026 was:

Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare= Free Cash Flow per Share /CPI of Mar. 2026 (Change)*Current CPI (Mar. 2026)
=1.295/108.0600*108.0600
=1.295

Current CPI (Mar. 2026) = 108.0600.

Novartis AG Quarterly Data

Free Cash Flow per Share CPI Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare
201606 0.903 100.088 0.975
201609 0.857 99.604 0.930
201612 1.113 99.380 1.210
201703 0.584 100.040 0.631
201706 1.136 100.285 1.224
201709 1.037 100.254 1.118
201712 1.035 100.213 1.116
201803 0.636 100.836 0.682
201806 1.262 101.435 1.344
201809 1.176 101.246 1.255
201812 1.170 100.906 1.253
201903 0.678 101.571 0.721
201906 1.013 102.044 1.073
201909 1.580 101.396 1.684
201912 1.133 101.063 1.211
202003 0.807 101.048 0.863
202006 1.352 100.743 1.450
202009 0.933 100.585 1.002
202012 1.073 100.241 1.157
202103 0.472 100.800 0.506
202106 1.299 101.352 1.385
202109 1.654 101.533 1.760
202112 1.303 101.776 1.383
202203 0.321 103.205 0.336
202206 1.357 104.783 1.399
202209 1.969 104.835 2.030
202212 1.580 104.666 1.631
202303 1.131 106.245 1.150
202306 1.180 106.576 1.196
202309 2.120 106.570 2.150
202312 0.780 106.461 0.792
202403 0.496 107.355 0.499
202406 1.883 107.991 1.884
202409 2.439 107.468 2.452
202412 1.456 107.128 1.469
202503 1.005 107.722 1.008
202506 2.701 108.075 2.701
202509 2.521 107.710 2.529
202512 0.550 107.200 0.554
202603 1.295 108.060 1.295

Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share together and divide 10 will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

What does a Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of €5.65 mean?
Novartis AG (FRA:NOT) has a Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of €5.65 as of Mar. 2026. Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share represents the company's inflation-adjusted FCF per share over a 10-year period. View historical data on Novartis AG and its competitors.
Is Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share too high?
Novartis AG's current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is €5.65. Overall, Novartis AG has a GF Score™ of 81/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share compare to LLY and JNJ?
Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of €5.65 can be compared against companies in the Drug Manufacturers industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for a Drug Manufacturers company?
A good Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share depends on the Drug Manufacturers industry context. However, Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share mean?
A high Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share represents the company's inflation-adjusted FCF per share over a 10-year period. View historical data on Novartis AG and its competitors. Novartis AG's current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is €5.65. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Novartis AG stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Novartis AG (FRA:NOT) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is €113.05, compared to a current price of €135.38 — trading 19.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is €5.65. Novartis AG's overall GF Score™ is 81/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share calculated?
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Novartis AG (FRA:NOT), the current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is €5.65 as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Novartis AG (FRA:NOT) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Novartis AG stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of €135.38 is trading 19.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of €113.05. GuruFocus considers Novartis AG to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for FRA:NOT:

  • Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share: €5.65
  • GF Value™: €113.05 vs. price of €135.38 (19.8% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 81/100 with 7 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the FRA:NOT stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Novartis AG Business Description

Address Lichtstrasse 35, Basel, CHE, 4056
Novartis develops and manufactures innovative drugs. Key areas of drug development are oncology, immunology, neuroscience, respiratory, and cardiovascular, renal, and metabolic. It also has an established medicines business, which includes off-patent franchises. The company sells its products globally, with the United States constituting close to one-third of total revenue.
81GF Score

Get the complete analysis for FRA:NOT

Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

€135.38
Price
€113.05
GF Value