Novartis AG (FRA:NOT) Shiller PE Ratio: (As of Sep. 21, 2026)

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
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Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
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Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

FRA:NOT Novartis AG FRA:NOT
78 GF Score
Price €122.92
GF Value €114.13
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 2 Warning Signs
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What is Novartis AG Shiller PE Ratio?

Shiller PE for Stocks: The True Measure of Stock Valuation


Novartis AG  (FRA:NOT) Shiller PE Ratio Explanation

Compared with the regular PE Ratio, which works poorly for cyclical businesses, the Shiller PE Ratio smoothed out the fluctuations of profit margins during business cycles. Therefore it is more accurate in reflecting the valuation of the company.

If a company has consistent business performance, the Shiller PE Ratio should give similar results to regular PE Ratio.

Compared with the PS Ratio, the Shiller PE Ratio makes the comparison between different industries more meaningful.


Be Aware

Shiller PE Ratio assumes that over the long term, businesses and profitability revert to their means. If a company's business model does not work in the future compared with the past, Shiller PE Ratio and PS Ratio will give false valuations.


Novartis AG Shiller PE Ratio Related Terms


Novartis AG Shiller PE Ratio Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Novartis AG's Shiller PE Ratio can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Novartis AG Shiller PE Ratio Chart

Novartis AG Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Shiller PE Ratio
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 18.50 18.01 16.31 15.50 24.72

Novartis AG Quarterly Data
Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26 Jun26
Shiller PE Ratio Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 21.15 21.92 23.72 25.61 26.70

FRA:NOT vs LLY, JNJ, ABBV: Shiller PE Ratio Comparison

For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Novartis AG's Shiller PE Ratio, along with its competitors' market caps and Shiller PE Ratio data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Novartis AG Shiller PE Ratio vs Drug Manufacturers Industry

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Novartis AG's Shiller PE Ratio distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Novartis AG's Shiller PE Ratio falls into.


FRA:NOT
78GF Score
Novartis AG FRA:NOT
Shiller PE Ratio is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Novartis AG Shiller PE Ratio Calculation

For Shiller PE Ratio, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/E calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Shiller PE Ratio is also called PE10.

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The same calculation is applied here to individual companies.

Novartis AG's E10 for the quarter that ended in Jun. 2026 is calculated as:

For example, Novartis AG's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Jun. 2026 was:

Adj_EPS=Earnings per Share (Diluted)/CPI of Jun. 2026 (Change)*Current CPI (Jun. 2026)
=1.4667/108.5600*108.5600
=1.467

Current CPI (Jun. 2026) = 108.5600.

Novartis AG Quarterly Data

Earnings per Share (Diluted) CPI Adj_EPS
201609 0.726 99.604 0.791
201612 0.371 99.380 0.405
201703 0.657 100.040 0.713
201706 0.754 100.285 0.816
201709 0.750 100.254 0.812
201712 0.713 100.213 0.773
201803 0.702 100.836 0.756
201806 2.779 101.435 2.974
201809 0.597 101.246 0.640
201812 0.448 100.906 0.482
201903 0.665 101.571 0.711
201906 2.594 102.044 2.759
201909 0.800 101.396 0.856
201912 0.443 101.063 0.476
202003 0.862 101.048 0.926
202006 0.736 100.743 0.793
202009 0.720 100.585 0.777
202012 0.770 100.241 0.834
202103 0.755 100.800 0.813
202106 1.065 101.352 1.140
202109 1.038 101.533 1.110
202112 6.333 101.776 6.755
202203 0.885 103.205 0.931
202206 0.719 104.783 0.745
202209 0.716 104.835 0.742
202212 0.669 104.666 0.694
202303 1.008 106.245 1.030
202306 1.016 106.576 1.035
202309 0.780 106.570 0.795
202312 3.820 106.461 3.895
202403 1.205 107.355 1.218
202406 1.474 107.991 1.481
202409 1.432 107.468 1.447
202412 1.318 107.128 1.336
202503 1.731 107.722 1.745
202506 1.819 108.075 1.827
202509 1.733 107.710 1.746
202512 1.073 107.200 1.087
202603 1.408 108.060 1.414
202606 1.467 108.560 1.467

Add all the adjusted EPS together and divide 10 will get our E10.

Please note that we use the CPI data of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the CPI data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the CPI data of the United States as default.

Is Novartis AG (FRA:NOT) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Novartis AG stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of €122.92 is trading 7.7% above its estimated GF Value™ of €114.13. GuruFocus considers Novartis AG to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for FRA:NOT:

  • Shiller PE Ratio:
  • GF Value™: €114.13 vs. price of €122.92 (7.7% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 78/100 with 2 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the FRA:NOT stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Novartis AG Business Description

Address Lichtstrasse 35, Basel, CHE, 4056
Novartis develops and manufactures innovative drugs. Key areas of drug development are oncology, immunology, neuroscience, respiratory, and cardiovascular, renal, and metabolic. It also has an established medicines business, which includes off-patent franchises. The company sells its products globally, with the United States constituting close to one-third of total revenue.
78GF Score

Get the complete analysis for FRA:NOT

Shiller PE Ratio is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

€122.92
Price
€114.13
GF Value