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Fluent (Fluent) Earnings Power Value (EPV) : $16.76 (As of Dec23)


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What is Fluent Earnings Power Value (EPV)?

As of Dec23, Fluent's earnings power value is $16.76. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is 80.19

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Fluent Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Fluent's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Fluent Earnings Power Value (EPV) Chart

Fluent Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -91.47 2.15 9.86 30.17 16.76

Fluent Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 30.17 26.68 25.74 21.33 16.76

Competitive Comparison of Fluent's Earnings Power Value (EPV)

For the Advertising Agencies subindustry, Fluent's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Fluent's Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution in the Media - Diversified Industry

For the Media - Diversified industry and Communication Services sector, Fluent's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Fluent's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Fluent Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Fluent's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 316.2
DDA 13.3
Operating Margin % 0.24
SGA * 25% 14.4
Tax Rate % -129.13
Maintenance Capex 3.7
Cash and Cash Equivalents 15.8
Short-Term Debt 7.3
Long-Term Debt 27.2
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 13.8

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 0.24%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $316.2 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 0.24%, Average Adjusted SGA = 14.4,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 316.2 * 0.24% +14.4 = $15.191944536 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = -129.13%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $15.191944536 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 15.191944536 * ( 1 - -129.13% ) = $34.809226555614 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 13.3 * 0.5 * -129.13% = $-8.587370009 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 34.809226555614 + -8.587370009 = $26.221856546614 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Fluent's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $3.7 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Fluent's current cash and cash equivalent = $15.8 Mil.
Fluent's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 27.2 + 7.3 = $34.483 Mil.
Fluent's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 13.8 Mil.

Fluent's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Dec23 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 26.221856546614 - 3.7)/ 9%+15.8-34.483 )/13.8
=16.76

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 16.761292369139-3.32 )/16.761292369139
= 80.19%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Fluent  (NAS:FLNT) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Fluent Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

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Fluent (Fluent) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
300 Vesey Street, 9th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10282
Fluent Inc is a data-driven digital marketing services company. It performs customer acquisition services by operating digital marketing campaigns, through which it connects its advertiser clients with consumers they are seeking to reach. It delivers data and performance-based marketing executions to its clients, such as consumer brands, direct marketers and agencies across a wide range of industries, including Financial Products & Services, Media & Entertainment, Health & Wellness, Staffing & Recruitment and Retail & Consumer. Geographically it earns key revenue from the U.S segment.
Executives
Matthew Conlin other: President of Fluent, LLC C/O IDI, INC., 2650 NORTH MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 300, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Ryan Schulke director, other: CEO of Fluent, LLC C/O IDI, INC., 2650 NORTH MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 300, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Ryan Macnab Perfit officer: Interim CFO C/O FLUENT INC. (N/K/A COGINT, INC.), 33 WHITEHALL STREET, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004
Frost Gamma Investments Trust other: Joint Filer 4400 BISCAYNE BLVD, MIAMI FL 33137
Frost Phillip Md Et Al 10 percent owner 4400 BISCAYNE BLVD, MIAMI FL 33137-3227
Donald Huntley Patrick officer: COO C/O FLUENT INC. (N/K/A COGINT, INC.), 33 WHITEHALL STREET, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004
Sugandha Khandelwal officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O FLUENT, INC., 300 VESEY STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10282
David Allen Graff director 300 VESEY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Pfenniger Richard C Jr director 4400 BISCAYNE BLVD., MIAMI FL 33137
Carla Newell director 528 RAMONA STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Alexander Mandel officer: Chief Financial Officer 1061 MARKET STREET, 6TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Kohn Barbara Shattuck director PENN NATIONAL GAMING, INC, 825 BERKSHIRE BLVE, SUITE 200, WYOMISSING PA 19610
Peter Benz director 171 MADISON AVE., 17 FL.,, NEW YORK NY 10016
Michael Brauser director 4400 BISCAYNE BLVD., SUITE 850, MIAMI FL 33137
Andrew J Frawley director C/O EXCHANGE APPLICATIONS INC, 89 SOUTH STREET, BOSTON MA 02111

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