Gemdale Properties and Investment (HKSE:00535) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : HK$0.64 (As of Jun. 20, 2024)

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What is Gemdale Properties and Investment Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-06-20), Gemdale Properties and Investment's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is HK$0.64.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Gemdale Properties and Investment's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Gemdale Properties and Investment is 58.59%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Gemdale Properties and Investment's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Gemdale Properties and Investment was 0.41. The lowest was 0.08. And the median was 0.18.

HKSE:00535's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Real Estate industry.
Industry Median: 0.58
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Gemdale Properties and Investment Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Gemdale Properties and Investment's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Gemdale Properties and Investment Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Gemdale Properties and Investment Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

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5.69

13.19

8.11

5.61

Gemdale Properties and Investment Semi-Annual Data
	Jun14	Dec14	Jun15	Dec15	Jun16	Dec16	Jun17	Dec17	Jun18	Dec18	Jun19	Dec19	Jun20	Dec20	Jun21	Dec21	Jun22	Dec22	Jun23	Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															8.11	-	5.61	-	-

Competitive Comparison of Gemdale Properties and Investment's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Real Estate - Development subindustry, Gemdale Properties and Investment's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Gemdale Properties and Investment's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Real Estate Industry

For the Real Estate industry and Real Estate sector, Gemdale Properties and Investment's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Gemdale Properties and Investment's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

Gemdale Properties and Investment Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.26%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Gemdale Properties and Investment's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 5 years was -10.80%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = HK$0.0558.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Gemdale Properties and Investment's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

0.0558

11.5406

0.64

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(0.64	-	0.265)	/	0.64
	=	58.59 %

Gemdale Properties and Investment (HKSE:00535) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Gemdale Properties and Investment Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Gemdale Properties and Investment (HKSE:00535) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Gemdale Properties and Investment Corp Ltd (HKSE:00535) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

28 Queen’s Road Central, 19th Floor, Central Tower, Central, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

https://www.gemdalepi.com

Gemdale Properties and Investment Corp Ltd is an investment holding company that operates through four segments. The property development segment, which produces the company's revenue, develops and sells residential and commercial properties. The property investment and management segment invests and manages business parks and commercial properties. In the microfinance segment, Gemdale provides financial services to potential property buyers and small businesses. The corporate segment provides corporate management services to residential, commercial, and business park projects. The company generates almost all of its revenue from Mainland China.

Executives

Gemdale Corporation	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lippo Capital Group Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Riady Stephen	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Leonardi Shincee	2202 Interest of your spouse
Riady James Tjahaja	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Pt Trijaya Utama Mandiri	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Oue Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lippo Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lippo Capital Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lippo Capital Holdings Company Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lippo Asm Asia Property Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hongkong Chinese Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hambali Aileen	2202 Interest of your spouse
Fortune Crane Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chan Kin	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Gemdale Properties and Investment (HKSE:00535) Headlines

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