Gemdale Properties and Investment (HKSE:00535) Predictability Rank

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What is Gemdale Properties and Investment Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gemdale Properties and Investment Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Gemdale Properties and Investment Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Gemdale Properties and Investment (HKSE:00535) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Gemdale Properties and Investment Corp Ltd (HKSE:00535) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

28 Queen’s Road Central, 19th Floor, Central Tower, Central, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

https://www.gemdalepi.com

Gemdale Properties and Investment Corp Ltd is an investment holding company that operates through four segments. The property development segment, which produces the company's revenue, develops and sells residential and commercial properties. The property investment and management segment invests and manages business parks and commercial properties. In the microfinance segment, Gemdale provides financial services to potential property buyers and small businesses. The corporate segment provides corporate management services to residential, commercial, and business park projects. The company generates almost all of its revenue from Mainland China.

Executives

Gemdale Corporation	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lippo Capital Group Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Riady Stephen	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Leonardi Shincee	2202 Interest of your spouse
Riady James Tjahaja	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Pt Trijaya Utama Mandiri	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Oue Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lippo Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lippo Capital Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lippo Capital Holdings Company Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lippo Asm Asia Property Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hongkong Chinese Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hambali Aileen	2202 Interest of your spouse
Fortune Crane Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chan Kin	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Gemdale Properties and Investment (HKSE:00535) Headlines

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