Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
Marathon PetroleumMEX:MPC 61 Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is MXN3,846.08 as of Jul. 16, 2026. GuruFocus rates MEX:MPC with a GF Score™ of 61/100 and a GF Value™ of MXN3,286.54 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 68 Oil & Gas companies, Marathon Petroleum ranks worse than 1470586.76% on this metric.
Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.
Marathon Petroleum's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.
The historical rank and industry rank for Marathon Petroleum's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:
MEX:MPC's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked *
in the Oil & Gas industry.
Industry Median: 0.865 * Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.
What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:
1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.
Marathon Petroleum Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms
Marathon Petroleum Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Marathon Petroleum's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
For the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing subindustry, Marathon Petroleum's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Marathon Petroleum Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) vs Oil & Gas Industry
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Marathon Petroleum's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Marathon Petroleum's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.
Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.58%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 11.90%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
Marathon Petroleum's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past
10 years was 11.90%,
which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 11.90%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = MXN211.7079. GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.
All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.
Marathon Petroleum's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) of MXN3,846.08 mean?
Marathon Petroleum (MEX:MPC) has a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) of MXN3,846.08 as of Jul. 16, 2026. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted dividend model. View historical data on Marathon Petroleum and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Marathon Petroleum ranks #999999 out of 68 companies in the Oil & Gas industry.
Is Marathon Petroleum's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) too high?
Marathon Petroleum's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is MXN3,846.08. Based on the distribution chart, Marathon Petroleum ranks #999999 out of 68 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Marathon Petroleum has a GF Score™ of 61/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Marathon Petroleum's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) compare to VLO and PSX?
According to the Oil & Gas industry distribution chart, Marathon Petroleum ranks #999999 out of 68 companies for Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based). This places Marathon Petroleum in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is 0.87. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for an Oil & Gas company?
The median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) among Oil & Gas companies is 0.87, based on 68 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted dividend model. View historical data on Marathon Petroleum and its competitors. For the Oil & Gas industry, the median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is 0.87 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Marathon Petroleum's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is MXN3,846.08. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Marathon Petroleum stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Marathon Petroleum (MEX:MPC) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN3,286.54, compared to a current price of MXN4,680.00 — trading 42.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is MXN3,846.08. Marathon Petroleum's overall GF Score™ is 61/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) calculated?
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Marathon Petroleum (MEX:MPC), the current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is MXN3,846.08 as of Jul. 16, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Marathon Petroleum (MEX:MPC) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Marathon Petroleum stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of MXN4,680.00 is trading 42.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of MXN3,286.54.
GuruFocus considers Marathon Petroleum to be Significantly Overvalued.
No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:MPC stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Marathon Petroleum is a leading integrated downstream and midstream energy company that operates 13 refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States with an aggregate crude oil refining capacity of 3.0 million barrels per day. The company is one of the largest producers of renewable diesel in the US; its Dickinson, North Dakota facility has the capacity to produce 184 million gallons per year, and its Martinez, California, joint venture facility (a 50/50 partnership with Neste) reached its full capacity of 730 million gallons per year in late 2024. Marathon also owns the general partner and approximately 64% of MPLX LP, a large-cap master limited partnership that owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets.
61GF Score
Get the complete analysis for MEX:MPC
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
MEX:MPC has been successfully added to your 
