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Serco GroupSCGPY 81 Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is $5.72 as of Jul. 17, 2026, which is 1117% above its 10-year median of 0.47. GuruFocus rates SCGPY with a GF Scoreâ„¢ of 81/100 and a GF Valueâ„¢ of $2.51 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review. Among 150 Business Services companies, Serco Group ranks worse than 666666% on this metric.
Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.
Serco Group's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.
The historical rank and industry rank for Serco Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Serco Group was 0.47. The lowest was 0.47. And the median was 0.47.
SCGPY's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked *
in the Business Services industry.
Industry Median: 0.845 * Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.
Serco Group (OTCPK:SCGPY) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation
What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:
1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.
Serco Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms
Serco Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Serco Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Serco Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart
For the Specialty Business Services subindustry, Serco Group's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Serco Group Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) vs Business Services Industry
For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, Serco Group's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Serco Group's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.
Serco Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.
Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.94%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 18.30%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
Serco Group's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past
3 years was 18.30%,
which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 18.30%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $0.2052. GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.
All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.
Serco Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) of $5.72 mean?
Serco Group (SCGPY) has a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) of $5.72 as of Jul. 17, 2026. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted dividend model. View historical data on Serco Group and its competitors. This is 1117% above median its historical median of 0.47. Over the past decade, Serco Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) has ranged from 0.47 to 0.47. According to the industry distribution chart, Serco Group ranks #999999 out of 150 companies in the Business Services industry.
Is Serco Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) too high?
Serco Group's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) of $5.72 is 1117% above median its 10-year median of 0.47. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.47 to a high of 0.47. The Business Services industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is 0.85. Serco Group's value of $5.72 is 576.9% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Serco Group ranks #999999 out of 150 companies in the Business Services industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Serco Group has a GF Scoreâ„¢ of 81/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Serco Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) compare to CTAS and CPRT?
According to the Business Services industry distribution chart, Serco Group ranks #999999 out of 150 companies for Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based). This places Serco Group in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is 0.85. Serco Group's value of $5.72 is 576.9% above this benchmark. Historically, Serco Group's own Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) has ranged from 0.47 to 0.47 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 0.47 vs. the industry median of 0.85, Serco Group has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for a Business Services company?
The median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) among Business Services companies is 0.85, based on 150 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Serco Group's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) of $5.72 is 576.9% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted dividend model. View historical data on Serco Group and its competitors. For the Business Services industry, the median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is 0.85 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Serco Group's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is $5.72, which is 1117% above median its own 10-year median of 0.47. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Serco Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Serco Group (SCGPY) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $2.51, compared to a current price of $2.83 — trading 12.6% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is $5.72, which is 1117% above median its 10-year median of 0.47 and 576.9% above the Business Services industry median of 0.85. Serco Group's overall GF Score™ is 81/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) calculated?
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Serco Group (SCGPY), the current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is $5.72 as of Jul. 17, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Serco Group (SCGPY) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Serco Group stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $2.83 is trading 12.6% above its estimated GF Value™ of $2.51.
GuruFocus considers Serco Group to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for SCGPY:
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based): $5.72 (1117% above median its 10-year median of 0.47)
GF Value™: $2.51 vs. price of $2.83 (12.6% above fair value)
Industry Position: 576.9% above the Business Services median (#999999 of 150)
No single metric tells the full story. See the SCGPY stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Serco Group PLC helps governments and public-sector bodies deliver public services. The company generates revenue from four divisions; the UK & Europe division provides hospital management, welfare, business support operations, and defense services in the U.K. and Europe. The North America division provides professional, defense, technology, and management services to the U.S. and Canadian governments. The Asia-Pacific segment provides frontline services, defense, and citizen services in Australia, New Zealand, and Hong Kong. The Middle East division provides transport, defense, and health services in the Middle East. The company generates its key revenue from the U.K. & Europe divisions.
81GF Score
Get the complete analysis for SCGPY
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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