Celsia Colombia ESP (BOG:CSACOL) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based): COP7,246.57 (As of Jul. 30, 2026) — 365888% Above Median

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BOG:CSACOL Celsia Colombia SA ESP BOG:CSACOL
17 GF Score
Price COP18,905.00
GF Value COP25,497.79
! 9 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Celsia Colombia ESP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)?

Celsia Colombia ESP BOG:CSACOL 17 Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is COP7,246.57 as of Jul. 30, 2026, which is 100% below its 10-year median of 1.98. GuruFocus rates BOG:CSACOL with a GF Score™ of 17/100 and a GF Value™ of COP25,497.79. The stock has 9 warning signs investors should review.

As of today (2026-07-30), Celsia Colombia ESP's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is COP7,246.57.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Celsia Colombia ESP's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Celsia Colombia ESP is -160.88%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Celsia Colombia ESP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

BOG:CSACOL' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.15   Med: 1.98   Max: 2.86
Current: 2.61

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Celsia Colombia ESP was 2.86. The lowest was 1.15. And the median was 1.98.

BOG:CSACOL's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is not ranked
in the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry.
Industry Median: 0.9 vs BOG:CSACOL: 2.61

Celsia Colombia ESP  (BOG:CSACOL) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Celsia Colombia ESP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms


Celsia Colombia ESP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Celsia Colombia ESP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Celsia Colombia ESP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Chart

Celsia Colombia ESP Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 12,889.74 8,732.96 0.00 6,609.87 8,294.57

Celsia Colombia ESP Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 8,327.85 8,390.76 7,700.95 8,294.57 0.00

BOG:CSACOL vs BE: Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Comparison

For the Utilities - Renewable subindustry, Celsia Colombia ESP's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Celsia Colombia ESP Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers Industry

For the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry and Utilities sector, Celsia Colombia ESP's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Celsia Colombia ESP's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.


BOG:CSACOL
17GF Score
Celsia Colombia SA ESP BOG:CSACOL
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Celsia Colombia ESP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 19%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 12.36%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5.70%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Celsia Colombia ESP's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 5.70%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5.70%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = COP1022.588.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Celsia Colombia ESP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.057)/(1+0.19) = 0.88823529411765
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.19) = 0.87394957983193

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=1022.588*7.0865
=7,246.57

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(7246.57-18905.00)/7246.57
=-160.88 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

What does a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of COP7,246.57 mean?
Celsia Colombia ESP (BOG:CSACOL) has a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of COP7,246.57 as of Jul. 30, 2026. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted earnings model. View historical data on Celsia Colombia ESP and its competitors. This is 365888% above median its historical median of 1.98. Over the past decade, Celsia Colombia ESP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) has ranged from 1.15 to 2.86.
Is Celsia Colombia ESP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) too high?
Celsia Colombia ESP's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of COP7,246.57 is 365888% above median its 10-year median of 1.98. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 1.15 to a high of 2.86. Overall, Celsia Colombia ESP has a GF Score™ of 17/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Celsia Colombia ESP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) compare to BE?
Celsia Colombia ESP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of COP7,246.57 can be compared against companies in the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 0.90. Historically, Celsia Colombia ESP's own Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) has ranged from 1.15 to 2.86 over the past decade. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for an Utilities - Independent Power Producers company?
The median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) among Utilities - Independent Power Producers companies is 0.90, based on 36 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted earnings model. View historical data on Celsia Colombia ESP and its competitors. For the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry, the median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 0.90 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Celsia Colombia ESP's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is COP7,246.57, which is 365888% above median its own 10-year median of 1.98. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Celsia Colombia ESP stock overvalued right now?
Celsia Colombia ESP (BOG:CSACOL) has a current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of COP7,246.57. The stock's GF Value™ is COP25,497.79, compared to a current price of COP18,905.00 — trading 25.9% below its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is COP7,246.57, which is 365888% above median its 10-year median of 1.98. Celsia Colombia ESP's overall GF Score™ is 17/100 with 9 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) calculated?
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Celsia Colombia ESP (BOG:CSACOL), the current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is COP7,246.57 as of Jul. 30, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Celsia Colombia ESP (BOG:CSACOL) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Celsia Colombia ESP stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of COP18,905.00 is trading 25.9% below its estimated GF Value™ of COP25,497.79.

Key valuation signals for BOG:CSACOL:

  • Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based): COP7,246.57 (365888% above median its 10-year median of 1.98)
  • GF Value™: COP25,497.79 vs. price of COP18,905.00 (25.9% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 17/100 with 9 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the BOG:CSACOL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Celsia Colombia ESP Business Description

Address Calle 15 No. 29B 30 Autopista, Valle del Cauca, Cali, Yumbo, COL
Celsia Colombia SA ESP is engaged in the generation of hydroelectric energy. The company engages in generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity. Its power generation plants include Run-of-the-river that uses river's flow to generate electricity; and Reservoir that generates energy through stored water. The company's produced electricity is sold to wholesale markets (energy market), regulated market (small consumers) and non-regulated market (large consumers). Revenue for the company is derived from the production and sale of electricity.
17GF Score

Get the complete analysis for BOG:CSACOL

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

COP18,905.00
Price
COP25,497.79
GF Value