Ambea AB (CHIX:AMBEAS) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based): kr362.23 (As of Aug. 25, 2026)

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

CHIX:AMBEAS Ambea AB CHIX:AMBEAS
82 GF Score
Price kr144.20
GF Value kr124.09
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 9 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Ambea AB Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)?

Ambea AB CHIX:AMBEAS 82 Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is kr362.23 as of Aug. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates CHIX:AMBEAS with a GF Score™ of 82/100 and a GF Value™ of kr124.09 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 9 warning signs investors should review. Among 99 Healthcare Providers & Services companies, Ambea AB ranks better than 88.89% on this metric.

As of today (2026-08-25), Ambea AB's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is kr362.23.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Ambea AB's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Ambea AB is 60.19%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Ambea AB's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

CHIX:AMBEAs' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.35   Med: 0.41   Max: 0.48
Current: 0.4

During the past 12 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Ambea AB was 0.48. The lowest was 0.35. And the median was 0.41.

CHIX:AMBEAs's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked better than
88.89% of 99 companies
in the Healthcare Providers & Services industry
Industry Median: 0.95 vs CHIX:AMBEAs: 0.40

Ambea AB  (CHIX:AMBEAs) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Ambea AB Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms


Ambea AB Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Ambea AB's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Ambea AB Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Chart

Ambea AB Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.00 0.00 0.00 250.05 267.97

Ambea AB Quarterly Data
Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26 Jun26
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 276.28 307.94 267.97 298.55 340.18

CHIX:AMBEAS vs HCA, THC, DVA: Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Comparison

For the Medical Care Facilities subindustry, Ambea AB's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Ambea AB Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) vs Healthcare Providers & Services Industry

For the Healthcare Providers & Services industry and Healthcare sector, Ambea AB's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Ambea AB's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.


CHIX:AMBEAS
82GF Score
Ambea AB CHIX:AMBEAS
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Ambea AB Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 2.78%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Ambea AB's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 31.80%, which is no less than 20%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = kr9.530.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Ambea AB's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.09) = 1.1009174311927
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=9.530*38.009
=362.23

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(362.23-144.20)/362.23
=60.19 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

What does a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of kr362.23 mean?
Ambea AB (CHIX:AMBEAS) has a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of kr362.23 as of Aug. 25, 2026. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted earnings model. View historical data on Ambea AB and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Ambea AB ranks #11 out of 99 companies in the Healthcare Providers & Services industry, placing it in the top 11.1%.
Is Ambea AB's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) too high?
Ambea AB's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is kr362.23. Based on the distribution chart, Ambea AB ranks #11 out of 99 companies in the Healthcare Providers & Services industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Ambea AB has a GF Score™ of 82/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Ambea AB's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) compare to HCA and THC?
According to the Healthcare Providers & Services industry distribution chart, Ambea AB ranks #11 out of 99 companies for Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based). This places Ambea AB in the top 11% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 0.95. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for a Healthcare Providers & Services company?
The median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) among Healthcare Providers & Services companies is 0.95, based on 99 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted earnings model. View historical data on Ambea AB and its competitors. For the Healthcare Providers & Services industry, the median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 0.95 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Ambea AB's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is kr362.23. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Ambea AB stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Ambea AB (CHIX:AMBEAS) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is kr124.09, compared to a current price of kr144.20 — trading 16.2% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is kr362.23. Ambea AB's overall GF Score™ is 82/100 with 9 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) calculated?
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Ambea AB (CHIX:AMBEAS), the current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is kr362.23 as of Aug. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Ambea AB (CHIX:AMBEAS) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Ambea AB stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of kr144.20 is trading 16.2% above its estimated GF Value™ of kr124.09. GuruFocus considers Ambea AB to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for CHIX:AMBEAS:

  • Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based): kr362.23
  • GF Value™: kr124.09 vs. price of kr144.20 (16.2% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 82/100 with 9 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the CHIX:AMBEAS stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Ambea AB Business Description

Address Rontgenvagen 3D, Box 1565, Solna, Stockholm, SWE, 171 29
Ambea AB is a Swedish care-provider group focused on elderly care, disability care, psychosocial support, housing, staffing, and training across the Nordic region. The company's segment includes: i) Nytida: Comprises social care services for children, youth and adults, in Sweden, ii) Vardaga: Comprises nursing homes and home care in Sweden, iii) Stendi: Comprises social care for children, youth and adult in Norway, iv) Validia: Comprises social care for children, v) Altiden: Comprises social care for children, youth and adults as well as elderly care in Denmark, and vi) Klara: Comprises competence and staffing solutions for elderly and social care, and student health services in Sweden. The majority of the company's revenue is derived from the Vardaga segment.
82GF Score

Get the complete analysis for CHIX:AMBEAS

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

kr144.20
Price
kr124.09
GF Value