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Savient Pharmaceuticals (FRA:BY7) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : €-10.07 (As of May. 15, 2024)


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What is Savient Pharmaceuticals Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-05-15), Savient Pharmaceuticals's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is €-10.07.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Savient Pharmaceuticals's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Savient Pharmaceuticals is N/A.

The industry rank for Savient Pharmaceuticals's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

FRA:BY7's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Biotechnology industry.
Industry Median: 1.95
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Savient Pharmaceuticals Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Savient Pharmaceuticals's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Savient Pharmaceuticals Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Savient Pharmaceuticals Annual Data
Trend Dec03 Dec04 Dec05 Dec06 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
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Savient Pharmaceuticals Quarterly Data
Mar09 Jun09 Sep09 Dec09 Mar10 Jun10 Sep10 Dec10 Mar11 Jun11 Sep11 Dec11 Mar12 Jun12 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Mar14
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Savient Pharmaceuticals's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Biotechnology subindustry, Savient Pharmaceuticals's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Savient Pharmaceuticals's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Biotechnology Industry

For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, Savient Pharmaceuticals's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Savient Pharmaceuticals's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.



Savient Pharmaceuticals Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.43%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Savient Pharmaceuticals's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = €-0.873.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Savient Pharmaceuticals's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=-0.873*11.5406
=-10.07

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(-10.07-0.03)/-10.07
=N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Savient Pharmaceuticals  (FRA:BY7) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Savient Pharmaceuticals Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Savient Pharmaceuticals (FRA:BY7) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc., was founded in 1980. It develops, manufactures and markets products through the application of genetic engineering and related biotechnologies. The Company, and its wholly-owned Subsidiaries, is a specialty biopharmaceutical company focused on commercializing KRYSTEXXA (pegloticase) in the United States and completing the development and seeking regulatory approval outside of the United States for KRYSTEXXA, particularly in the European Union. It completed a promotional launch of KRYSTEXXA in the United States during the first quarter of 2011 with its sales force commencing field promotion to health care providers on February 28, 2011. The Company also sells and distributes branded and generic versions of oxandrolone, a drug used to promote weight gain following involuntary weight loss. The Company launched its authorized generic version of oxandrolone in December 2006 in response to the approval and launch of generic competition to Oxandrin. On January 1, 2012, KRYSTEXXA received a permanent J Code, which facilitates reimbursement to providers who treat patients suffering with RCG and who rely on Medicare and Medicaid. The manufacturing process for pegloticase, which is the drug substance of KRYSTEXXA, consists of the production through a recombinant process in which a genetically-engineered bacteria produces uricase, followed by its purification, PEGylation, further purification and formulation to produce the bulk pegloticase, which the company refers it as pegloticase drug substance. Pegloticase is aseptically filtered and filled into sterile, single dose vials to produce the KRYSTEXXA drug product. Its sales force targets rheumatologists and nephrologists with access to infusion centers and healthcare institutions, each of which treat adult patients suffering from RCG, as well as podiatrists who also treat patients with RCG. In March 2012, KRYSTEXXA was made available in the EU to healthcare professionals through a Named Patient Program. The Company sells its products to three drug wholesaler customers and various specialty distributors. Its research and development includes costs associated with the research and development of its KRYSTEXXA product prior to FDA approval and FDA-related post-marketing commitments for approved products (KRYSTEXXA post-approval). These costs mainly include pre-clinical and clinical studies and trials, personnel costs including compensation, consultants and contract research organizations, or CROs, quality control and assurance costs, regulatory costs and costs related to the development of commercial scale manufacturing capabilities for KRYSTEXXA, which also includes the costs of preparing Fujifilm to serve as its secondary source supplier of pegloticase drug substance for KRYSTEXXA in the United States. As of March 7, 2013, the company owned 14 issued U.S. patents and 154 issued foreign patents. It currently owns U.S. and several foreign registrations or applicat

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