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Northern Star ResourcesNESRF +1.92%92 Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $1.45 as of Aug. 13, 2026, which is 4% above its 10-year median of 1.39. GuruFocus rates NESRF with a GF Score™ of 92/100 and a GF Value™ of $14.54 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review. Among 58 Metals & Mining companies, Northern Star Resources ranks worse than 96.55% on this metric.
Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
Northern Star Resources Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms
Northern Star Resources Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data
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The historical data trend for Northern Star Resources's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Northern Star Resources Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart
NESRF vs NEM, AU: Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Comparison
For the Gold subindustry, Northern Star Resources's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Northern Star Resources Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) vs Metals & Mining Industry
For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Northern Star Resources's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Northern Star Resources's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.
Northern Star Resources Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.
Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.83%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 6.40%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
Northern Star Resources's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past
10 years was 6.40%,
which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 6.40%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $0.115. However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of $1.45 mean?
Northern Star Resources (NESRF) has a Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of $1.45 as of Aug. 13, 2026. Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted free cash flow model. View historical data on Northern Star Resources and its competitors. This is near median its historical median of 1.39. Over the past decade, Northern Star Resources' Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) has ranged from 0.41 to 11.17. According to the industry distribution chart, Northern Star Resources ranks #56 out of 58 companies in the Metals & Mining industry, placing it in the top 96.6%.
Is Northern Star Resources' Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) too high?
Northern Star Resources' current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of $1.45 is near median its 10-year median of 1.39. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.41 to a high of 11.17. The Metals & Mining industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is 1.49. Northern Star Resources' value of $1.45 is 2.4% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Northern Star Resources ranks #56 out of 58 companies in the Metals & Mining industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Northern Star Resources has a GF Score™ of 92/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Northern Star Resources' Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) compare to NEM and AU?
According to the Metals & Mining industry distribution chart, Northern Star Resources ranks #56 out of 58 companies for Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based). This places Northern Star Resources in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is 1.49. Northern Star Resources' value of $1.45 is 2.4% below this benchmark. Historically, Northern Star Resources' own Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) has ranged from 0.41 to 11.17 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 1.39 vs. the industry median of 1.49, Northern Star Resources has consistently been below the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for a Metals & Mining company?
The median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) among Metals & Mining companies is 1.49, based on 58 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Northern Star Resources's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of $1.45 is 2.4% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted free cash flow model. View historical data on Northern Star Resources and its competitors. For the Metals & Mining industry, the median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is 1.49 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Northern Star Resources's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $1.45, which is near median its own 10-year median of 1.39. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Northern Star Resources stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Northern Star Resources (NESRF) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $14.54, compared to a current price of $16.20 — trading 11.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $1.45, which is near median its 10-year median of 1.39 and 2.4% below the Metals & Mining industry median of 1.49. Northern Star Resources' overall GF Score™ is 92/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) calculated?
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Northern Star Resources (NESRF), the current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $1.45 as of Aug. 13, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Northern Star Resources (NESRF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Northern Star Resources stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $16.20 is trading 11.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of $14.54.
GuruFocus considers Northern Star Resources to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for NESRF:
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based): $1.45 (near median its 10-year median of 1.39)
GF Value™: $14.54 vs. price of $16.20 (11.4% above fair value)
Industry Position: 2.4% below the Metals & Mining median (#56 of 58)
No single metric tells the full story. See the NESRF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Northern Star is an Australia-based midtier global gold miner that sold around 1.6 million ounces of gold in fiscal 2025 from its three wholly owned mining operations in Australia and Alaska. Its operations are the result of significant merger and acquisition activity including 14 acquisitions and four asset sales since 2010. It had roughly a decade of reserves at the end of fiscal 2025.
92GF Score
Get the complete analysis for NESRF
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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