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Northern Star ResourcesNESRF +1.92%92 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 22.42% as of Jun. 2025, which is 2% above its 10-year median of 22.02. GuruFocus rates NESRF with a GF Score™ of 92/100 and a GF Value™ of $14.42 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review. Among 442 Metals & Mining companies, Northern Star Resources ranks better than 82.81% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Northern Star Resources's forward rate of return for was 22.42%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Northern Star Resources's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
NESRF'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 3.42 Med: 22.02 Max: 24.99
Current: 21.98
During the past 13 years, Northern Star Resources's highest Forward Rate of Return was 24.99. The lowest was 3.42. And the median was 22.02.
NESRF's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 82.81% of 442
companies
in the Metals & Mining industry
Industry Median: 9.205
vs NESRF: 21.98
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Northern Star Resources (OTCPK:NESRF) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Northern Star Resources Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Northern Star Resources Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Northern Star Resources's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Northern Star Resources Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
NESRF vs NEM, AU: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Gold subindustry, Northern Star Resources's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Northern Star Resources Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Metals & Mining Industry
For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Northern Star Resources's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Northern Star Resources's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Northern Star Resources Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 22.42% mean?
Northern Star Resources (NESRF) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 22.42% as of Jun. 2025. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Northern Star Resources and its competitors. This is near median its historical median of 22.02. Over the past decade, Northern Star Resources' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 3.42 to 24.99. According to the industry distribution chart, Northern Star Resources ranks #76 out of 442 companies in the Metals & Mining industry, placing it in the top 17.2%.
Is Northern Star Resources' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Northern Star Resources' current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 22.42% is near median its 10-year median of 22.02. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 3.42 to a high of 24.99. The Metals & Mining industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.21. Northern Star Resources' value of 22.42% is 143.6% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Northern Star Resources ranks #76 out of 442 companies in the Metals & Mining industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Northern Star Resources has a GF Score™ of 92/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Northern Star Resources' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to NEM and AU?
According to the Metals & Mining industry distribution chart, Northern Star Resources ranks #76 out of 442 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Northern Star Resources in the top 17% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.21. Northern Star Resources' value of 22.42% is 143.6% above this benchmark. Historically, Northern Star Resources' own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 3.42 to 24.99 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 22.02 vs. the industry median of 9.21, Northern Star Resources has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Metals & Mining company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Metals & Mining companies is 9.21, based on 442 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Northern Star Resources's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 22.42% is 143.6% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Northern Star Resources and its competitors. For the Metals & Mining industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.21 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Northern Star Resources's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 22.42%, which is near median its own 10-year median of 22.02. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Northern Star Resources stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Northern Star Resources (NESRF) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $14.42, compared to a current price of $16.20 — trading 12.3% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 22.42%, which is near median its 10-year median of 22.02 and 143.6% above the Metals & Mining industry median of 9.21. Northern Star Resources' overall GF Score™ is 92/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Northern Star Resources (NESRF), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 22.42% as of Jun. 2025. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Northern Star Resources (NESRF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Northern Star Resources stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $16.20 is trading 12.3% above its estimated GF Value™ of $14.42.
GuruFocus considers Northern Star Resources to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for NESRF:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 22.42% (near median its 10-year median of 22.02)
GF Value™: $14.42 vs. price of $16.20 (12.3% above fair value)
Industry Position: 143.6% above the Metals & Mining median (#76 of 442)
No single metric tells the full story. See the NESRF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Northern Star is an Australia-based midtier global gold miner that sold around 1.6 million ounces of gold in fiscal 2025 from its three wholly owned mining operations in Australia and Alaska. Its operations are the result of significant merger and acquisition activity including 14 acquisitions and four asset sales since 2010. It had roughly a decade of reserves at the end of fiscal 2025.
92GF Score
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Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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