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Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
The historical rank and industry rank for Alpha Metallurgical Resources's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
AMR'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.21 Med: 0.58 Max: 1.54
Current: 0.47
During the past 11 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Alpha Metallurgical Resources was 1.54. The lowest was 0.21. And the median was 0.58.
AMR's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than 69.44% of 445
companies
in the Steel industry
Industry Median: 0.75
vs AMR: 0.47
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
223.74
/
473.69163326136
=
0.47
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
AMR vs SXC, METC, HCC: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Coking Coal subindustry, Alpha Metallurgical Resources's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Steel Industry
For the Steel industry and Basic Materials sector, Alpha Metallurgical Resources's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Alpha Metallurgical Resources's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $473.69 mean?
Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $473.69 as of Sep. 08, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Alpha Metallurgical Resources and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Alpha Metallurgical Resources ranks #136 out of 445 companies in the Steel industry, placing it in the top 30.6%.
Is Alpha Metallurgical Resources' Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
Alpha Metallurgical Resources' current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $473.69. The Steel industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.75. Alpha Metallurgical Resources' value of $473.69 is 63058.7% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Alpha Metallurgical Resources ranks #136 out of 445 companies in the Steel industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Alpha Metallurgical Resources has a GF Score™ of 78/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Alpha Metallurgical Resources' Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to SXC and METC?
According to the Steel industry distribution chart, Alpha Metallurgical Resources ranks #136 out of 445 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This puts Alpha Metallurgical Resources in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.75. Alpha Metallurgical Resources' value of $473.69 is 63058.7% above this benchmark. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Steel company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Steel companies is 0.75, based on 445 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Alpha Metallurgical Resources's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $473.69 is 63058.7% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Alpha Metallurgical Resources and its competitors. For the Steel industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.75 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Alpha Metallurgical Resources's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $473.69. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Alpha Metallurgical Resources stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $164.56, compared to a current price of $223.74 — trading 36% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $473.69 and 63058.7% above the Steel industry median of 0.75. Alpha Metallurgical Resources' overall GF Score™ is 78/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $473.69 as of Sep. 08, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alpha Metallurgical Resources stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $223.74 is trading 36% above its estimated GF Value™ of $164.56.
GuruFocus considers Alpha Metallurgical Resources to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for AMR:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $473.69
GF Value™: $164.56 vs. price of $223.74 (36% above fair value)
Industry Position: 63058.7% above the Steel median (#136 of 445)
No single metric tells the full story. See the AMR stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc is a Tennessee-based coal mining company with operations across Virginia and West Virginia. The company's portfolio of mining operations consists of underground mines, surface mines, and coal preparation plants. It produces low-ash metallurgical coal, including High-Vol. A, Mid-Vol., High-Vol. B, and Low-Vol. coal, which is shipped to domestic and international coke and steel producers. The reportable segment of the company is Met. It extracts, processes and markets met and thermal coal from deep and surface mines for sale to steel and coke producers, industrial customers, and electric utilities.
78GF Score
Get the complete analysis for AMR
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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