Alpha Metallurgical Resources (Alpha Metallurgical Resources) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2016. Start your Free Trial

What is Alpha Metallurgical Resources Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Alpha Metallurgical Resources's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources (Alpha Metallurgical Resources) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Steel » Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (NYSE:AMR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

340 Martin Luther King Jr. Boulevard, Bristol, TN, USA, 37620

Website

https://www.alphametresources.com

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc is a Tennessee-based coal mining company with operations across Virginia and West Virginia. The company's portfolio of mining operations consists of underground mines, surface mines and coal preparation plants. It produces low-ash metallurgical coal, including High-Vol. A, Mid-Vol., High-Vol. B, and Low-Vol. coal, which is shipped to domestic and international coke and steel producers. The reportable segments of the company are Met. It extracts, processes and markets met and thermal coal from deep and surface mines for sale to steel and coke producers, industrial customers, and electric utilities.

Executives

David J. Stetson	director	C/O CONTURA ENERGY, INC., 340 MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. BLVD., BRISTOL TN 37620
Daniel E. Horn	officer: Executive Vice President-Sales	C/O CONTURA ENERGY, INC., 340 MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. BLVD., BRISTOL TN 37620
Jason E. Whitehead	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O CONTURA ENERGY, INC., 340 MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. BLVD., BRISTOL TN 37620
Roger Lee Nicholson	officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary	C/O CONTURA ENERGY, INC., 340 MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. BLVD., BRISTOL TN 37620
Baker De Neufville Joanna	director	340 MARTIN LUTHER KING JR BLVD, BRISTOL TN 37620
Michael Gorzynski	director, other: See Remarks	595 MADISON AVE, FLOOR 29, NEW YORK NY 10022
Continental General Holdings Llc	other: See Remarks	11001 LAKELINE BLVD., STE. 120, AUSTIN TX 78717
Mg Capital Management Ltd.	other: See Remarks	C/O CAMPBELLS LLP, FLOOR 4, WILLOW HOUSE, CRICKET SQUARE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9010
Percy Rockdale Llc	other: See Remarks	595 MADISON AVENUE, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Continental Insurance Group, Ltd.	other: See Remarks	11001 LAKELINE BLVD., STE. 120, AUSTIN TX 78717
Continental General Insurance Co	other: See Remarks	11001 LAKELINE BLVD., STE. 120, AUSTIN TX 78717
Joshua Todd Munsey	officer: Chief Financial Officer	340 MARTIN LUTHER KING BOULEVARD, BRISTOL TN 37620
Elizabeth Anne Fessenden	director	1137 WEST AVENUE, RICHMOND VA 23220
Scott D. Vogel	director	885 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10075
Charles Andrew Eidson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	ONE ALPHA PLACE, P.O. BOX 16429, BRISTOL VA 24209