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Aspen AerogelsASPN +2.37%65 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $-8.51 as of Sep. 21, 2026. GuruFocus rates ASPN with a GF Score™ of 65/100 and a GF Value™ of $5.09 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,158 Chemicals companies, Aspen Aerogels ranks worse than 86355.7% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2026-09-21), Aspen Aerogels's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $-8.51. The stock price of Aspen Aerogels is $5.19. Therefore, Aspen Aerogels's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.0.
The historical rank and industry rank for Aspen Aerogels's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Aspen Aerogels was 100.02. The lowest was 32.52. And the median was 66.27.
ASPN's Price-to-Projected-FCF is not ranked *
in the Chemicals industry.
Industry Median: 1.36 * Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-Projected-FCF only.
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Aspen Aerogels's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
5.19
/
-8.5145036350782
=
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Aspen Aerogels Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Aspen Aerogels Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Aspen Aerogels's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
ASPN vs GEVO, OEC, ALTO: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Specialty Chemicals subindustry, Aspen Aerogels's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Aspen Aerogels Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Chemicals Industry
For the Chemicals industry and Basic Materials sector, Aspen Aerogels's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Aspen Aerogels's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $-8.51 mean?
Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $-8.51 as of Sep. 21, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Aspen Aerogels and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Aspen Aerogels ranks #999999 out of 1158 companies in the Chemicals industry.
Is Aspen Aerogels' Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
Aspen Aerogels' current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $-8.51. Based on the distribution chart, Aspen Aerogels ranks #999999 out of 1158 companies in the Chemicals industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Aspen Aerogels has a GF Score™ of 65/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Aspen Aerogels' Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to GEVO and OEC?
According to the Chemicals industry distribution chart, Aspen Aerogels ranks #999999 out of 1158 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places Aspen Aerogels in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.36. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Chemicals company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Chemicals companies is 1.36, based on 1,158 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Aspen Aerogels and its competitors. For the Chemicals industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.36 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Aspen Aerogels's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $-8.51. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Aspen Aerogels stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $5.09, compared to a current price of $5.19 — trading 2% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $-8.51. Aspen Aerogels' overall GF Score™ is 65/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Aspen Aerogels (ASPN), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $-8.51 as of Sep. 21, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Aspen Aerogels stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $5.19 is trading 2% above its estimated GF Value™ of $5.09.
GuruFocus considers Aspen Aerogels to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for ASPN:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $-8.51
GF Value™: $5.09 vs. price of $5.19 (2% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ASPN stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Aspen Aerogels Inc is an aerogel technology company that designs, develops, and manufactures high-performance aerogel insulation used in the energy industrial and sustainable insulation markets. The company also conducts research and development related to aerogel technology, supported by funding from several agencies of the United States of America government and other institutions in the form of research and development contracts. It is engaged in two operating segment Energy Industrial and Thermal Barrier. Geographically, it operates in the U.S. and also has a presence in other International countries. It generates the majority of its revenue from the Thermal Barrier segment and the United States market. Some of its products include Pyrogel XTE, Cryogel Z, Spaceloft Subsea, and others.
65GF Score
Get the complete analysis for ASPN
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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