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Algoma Steel GroupASTL 61 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $-0.78 as of Sep. 09, 2026. GuruFocus rates ASTL with a GF Score™ of 61/100 and a GF Value™ of $4.53 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 9 warning signs investors should review. Among 446 Steel companies, Algoma Steel Group ranks worse than 224215.02% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2026-09-09), Algoma Steel Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $-0.78. The stock price of Algoma Steel Group is $4.41. Therefore, Algoma Steel Group's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.0.
The historical rank and industry rank for Algoma Steel Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
During the past 6 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Algoma Steel Group was 7.00. The lowest was 7.00. And the median was 7.00.
ASTL's Price-to-Projected-FCF is not ranked *
in the Steel industry.
Industry Median: 0.74 * Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-Projected-FCF only.
Algoma Steel Group (NAS:ASTL) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Algoma Steel Group's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
4.41
/
0.30218311683427
=
14.59
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Algoma Steel Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Algoma Steel Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Algoma Steel Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Algoma Steel Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart
ASTL vs NUE, STLD, RS: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Steel subindustry, Algoma Steel Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Algoma Steel Group Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Steel Industry
For the Steel industry and Basic Materials sector, Algoma Steel Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Algoma Steel Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Algoma Steel Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $-0.78 mean?
Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $-0.78 as of Sep. 09, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Algoma Steel Group and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Algoma Steel Group ranks #999999 out of 446 companies in the Steel industry.
Is Algoma Steel Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
Algoma Steel Group's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $-0.78. Based on the distribution chart, Algoma Steel Group ranks #999999 out of 446 companies in the Steel industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Algoma Steel Group has a GF Score™ of 61/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Algoma Steel Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to NUE and STLD?
According to the Steel industry distribution chart, Algoma Steel Group ranks #999999 out of 446 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places Algoma Steel Group in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.74. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Steel company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Steel companies is 0.74, based on 446 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Algoma Steel Group and its competitors. For the Steel industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.74 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Algoma Steel Group's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $-0.78. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Algoma Steel Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $4.53, compared to a current price of $4.41 — trading 2.6% below its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $-0.78. Algoma Steel Group's overall GF Score™ is 61/100 with 9 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Algoma Steel Group (ASTL), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $-0.78 as of Sep. 09, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Algoma Steel Group stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $4.41 is trading 2.6% below its estimated GF Value™ of $4.53.
GuruFocus considers Algoma Steel Group to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for ASTL:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $-0.78
GF Value™: $4.53 vs. price of $4.41 (2.6% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ASTL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Algoma Steel Group Inc is a fully integrated steel producer of hot and cold rolled steel products, including coiled sheet and plate, strategically located. The firm operates in a single segment of basic steel production including sheets, plates, slabs, and freights. The company's revenue is generated from contracts to produce, ship, and deliver steel products Geographically it serves Canada, the United States, and the rest of the world, whilst driving key revenue from United States. The company generates the majority of its revenue from the sale of Steel sheets and strips.
61GF Score
Get the complete analysis for ASTL
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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