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Telstra GroupASX:TLS +0.63%76 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is A$3.77 as of Aug. 17, 2026, which is 100% below its 10-year median of 1.02. GuruFocus rates ASX:TLS with a GF Score™ of 76/100 and a GF Value™ of A$4.21 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review. Among 268 Telecommunication Services companies, Telstra Group ranks worse than 64.93% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2026-08-17), Telstra Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is A$3.77. The stock price of Telstra Group is A$4.81. Therefore, Telstra Group's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 1.3.
The historical rank and industry rank for Telstra Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
ASX:TLS'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.63 Med: 1.02 Max: 1.35
Current: 1.28
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Telstra Group was 1.35. The lowest was 0.63. And the median was 1.02.
ASX:TLS's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than 64.93% of 268
companies
in the Telecommunication Services industry
Industry Median: 0.945
vs ASX:TLS: 1.28
Telstra Group (ASX:TLS) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Telstra Group's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
4.81
/
3.7691008015902
=
1.28
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Telstra Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Telstra Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Telstra Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Telstra Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart
ASX:TLS vs VZ, TMUS, T: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Telecom Services subindustry, Telstra Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Telstra Group Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Telecommunication Services Industry
For the Telecommunication Services industry and Communication Services sector, Telstra Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Telstra Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Telstra Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of A$3.77 mean?
Telstra Group (ASX:TLS) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of A$3.77 as of Aug. 17, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Telstra Group and its competitors. This is 270% above median its historical median of 1.02. Over the past decade, Telstra Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 0.63 to 1.35. According to the industry distribution chart, Telstra Group ranks #174 out of 268 companies in the Telecommunication Services industry, placing it in the top 64.9%.
Is Telstra Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
Telstra Group's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of A$3.77 is 270% above median its 10-year median of 1.02. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.63 to a high of 1.35. Based on the distribution chart, Telstra Group ranks #174 out of 268 companies in the Telecommunication Services industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Telstra Group has a GF Score™ of 76/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Telstra Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to VZ and TMUS?
According to the Telecommunication Services industry distribution chart, Telstra Group ranks #174 out of 268 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places Telstra Group in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.95. Historically, Telstra Group's own Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 0.63 to 1.35 over the past decade. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Telecommunication Services company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Telecommunication Services companies is 0.95, based on 268 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Telstra Group and its competitors. For the Telecommunication Services industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.95 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Telstra Group's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is A$3.77, which is 270% above median its own 10-year median of 1.02. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Telstra Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Telstra Group (ASX:TLS) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is A$4.21, compared to a current price of A$4.81 — trading 14.3% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is A$3.77, which is 270% above median its 10-year median of 1.02. Telstra Group's overall GF Score™ is 76/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Telstra Group (ASX:TLS), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is A$3.77 as of Aug. 17, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Telstra Group (ASX:TLS) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Telstra Group stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of A$4.81 is trading 14.3% above its estimated GF Value™ of A$4.21.
GuruFocus considers Telstra Group to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for ASX:TLS:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: A$3.77 (270% above median its 10-year median of 1.02)
GF Value™: A$4.21 vs. price of A$4.81 (14.3% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:TLS stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Telstra is Australia's largest telecommunications company, with dominant market shares in voice, mobile, enterprise telecom, and fixed-line broadband resale via the national broadband network. Telstra provides most of its services via its infrastructure assets, such as a fixed-line network (data centers, exchanges, poles, ducts, pits and pipes, fiber network), a mobile network, and mobile towers. Its customers span retail, corporate, government, wholesale, and overseas segments. Telstra also provides the government-owned, last-mile fixed-line National Broadband Network with long-term access to its infrastructure, in return for recurring payments. Finally, Telstra operates a leading telecom operation in Papua New Guinea and the surrounding South-Pacific countries.
76GF Score
Get the complete analysis for ASX:TLS
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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