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HelloFresh SECHIX:HFGD 49 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is €13.13 as of Sep. 21, 2026. GuruFocus rates CHIX:HFGD with a GF Score™ of 49/100 and a GF Value™ of €7.86 (Significantly Undervalued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review. Among 228 Retail - Defensive companies, HelloFresh SE ranks better than 95.61% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2026-09-21), HelloFresh SE's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is €13.13. The stock price of HelloFresh SE is €2.7555. Therefore, HelloFresh SE's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.2.
The historical rank and industry rank for HelloFresh SE's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
CHIX:HFGd'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.21 Med: 1.91 Max: 11.72
Current: 0.21
During the past 12 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of HelloFresh SE was 11.72. The lowest was 0.21. And the median was 1.91.
CHIX:HFGd's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than 95.61% of 228
companies
in the Retail - Defensive industry
Industry Median: 0.825
vs CHIX:HFGd: 0.21
HelloFresh SE (CHIX:HFGd) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
HelloFresh SE's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
2.7555
/
15.857100694809
=
0.17
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
HelloFresh SE Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
HelloFresh SE Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for HelloFresh SE's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
HelloFresh SE Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart
CHIX:HFGD vs KR, SFM, ACI: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Grocery Stores subindustry, HelloFresh SE's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
HelloFresh SE Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Retail - Defensive Industry
For the Retail - Defensive industry and Consumer Defensive sector, HelloFresh SE's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where HelloFresh SE's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
HelloFresh SE Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of €13.13 mean?
HelloFresh SE (CHIX:HFGD) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of €13.13 as of Sep. 21, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on HelloFresh SE and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, HelloFresh SE ranks #10 out of 228 companies in the Retail - Defensive industry, placing it in the top 4.4%.
Is HelloFresh SE's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
HelloFresh SE's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is €13.13. Based on the distribution chart, HelloFresh SE ranks #10 out of 228 companies in the Retail - Defensive industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, HelloFresh SE has a GF Score™ of 49/100 and is considered Significantly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does HelloFresh SE's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to KR and SFM?
According to the Retail - Defensive industry distribution chart, HelloFresh SE ranks #10 out of 228 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places HelloFresh SE in the top 4% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.83. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Retail - Defensive company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Retail - Defensive companies is 0.83, based on 228 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on HelloFresh SE and its competitors. For the Retail - Defensive industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.83 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. HelloFresh SE's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is €13.13. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is HelloFresh SE stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, HelloFresh SE (CHIX:HFGD) is currently considered Significantly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is €7.86, compared to a current price of €2.76 — trading 64.9% below its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is €13.13. HelloFresh SE's overall GF Score™ is 49/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For HelloFresh SE (CHIX:HFGD), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is €13.13 as of Sep. 21, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is HelloFresh SE (CHIX:HFGD) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, HelloFresh SE stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of €2.76 is trading 64.9% below its estimated GF Value™ of €7.86.
GuruFocus considers HelloFresh SE to be Significantly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for CHIX:HFGD:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: €13.13
GF Value™: €7.86 vs. price of €2.76 (64.9% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the CHIX:HFGD stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
HelloFresh SE is a digital-first, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) company offering personalized, home-delivered meal solutions across a diverse range of meal occasions. Its offerings include meal kits, add-on products, and ready-to-eat meals. The Group manages its meal kit business through various brands such as HelloFresh, Green Chef, EveryPlate, and Chefs Plate, among others. It also operates two smaller businesses, a premium direct-to-customer butcher brand, Good Chop, and a human-grade pet food brand, The Pets Table. HelloFresh's operations are organized into two geographic regions: North America and International. The majority of its revenue is generated from North America, which comprises its business in the United States and Canada.
49GF Score
Get the complete analysis for CHIX:HFGD
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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