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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
The historical rank and industry rank for China Tobacco International (HK) Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
CTOBF'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.43 Med: 2.67 Max: 3.41
Current: 2.18
During the past 11 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of China Tobacco International (HK) Co was 3.41. The lowest was 1.43. And the median was 2.67.
CTOBF's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than 81.25% of 32
companies
in the Tobacco Products industry
Industry Median: 1.32
vs CTOBF: 2.18
China Tobacco International (HK) Co (OTCPK:CTOBF) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
China Tobacco International (HK) Co's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
2.05
/
1.5559256576232
=
1.32
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
China Tobacco International (HK) Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
China Tobacco International (HK) Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
China Tobacco International (HK) Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart
CTOBF vs PM, MO, TPB: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Tobacco subindustry, China Tobacco International (HK) Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
China Tobacco International (HK) Co Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Tobacco Products Industry
For the Tobacco Products industry and Consumer Defensive sector, China Tobacco International (HK) Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where China Tobacco International (HK) Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
China Tobacco International (HK) Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $0.94 mean?
China Tobacco International (HK) Co (CTOBF) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $0.94 as of Sep. 21, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on China Tobacco International (HK) Co and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, China Tobacco International (HK) Co ranks #26 out of 32 companies in the Tobacco Products industry, placing it in the top 81.2%.
Is China Tobacco International (HK) Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
China Tobacco International (HK) Co's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $0.94. The Tobacco Products industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.32. China Tobacco International (HK) Co's value of $0.94 is 28.8% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, China Tobacco International (HK) Co ranks #26 out of 32 companies in the Tobacco Products industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, China Tobacco International (HK) Co has a GF Score™ of 88/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does China Tobacco International (HK) Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to PM and MO?
According to the Tobacco Products industry distribution chart, China Tobacco International (HK) Co ranks #26 out of 32 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places China Tobacco International (HK) Co in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.32. China Tobacco International (HK) Co's value of $0.94 is 28.8% below this benchmark. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Tobacco Products company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Tobacco Products companies is 1.32, based on 32 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. China Tobacco International (HK) Co's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $0.94 is 28.8% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on China Tobacco International (HK) Co and its competitors. For the Tobacco Products industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.32 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. China Tobacco International (HK) Co's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $0.94. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is China Tobacco International (HK) Co stock overvalued right now?
China Tobacco International (HK) Co (CTOBF) has a current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $0.94. The stock's GF Value™ is $1.93, compared to a current price of $2.05 — trading 6.2% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $0.94 and 28.8% below the Tobacco Products industry median of 1.32. China Tobacco International (HK) Co's overall GF Score™ is 88/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For China Tobacco International (HK) Co (CTOBF), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $0.94 as of Sep. 21, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is China Tobacco International (HK) Co (CTOBF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Tobacco International (HK) Co stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $2.05 is trading 6.2% above its estimated GF Value™ of $1.93.
Key valuation signals for CTOBF:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $0.94
GF Value™: $1.93 vs. price of $2.05 (6.2% above fair value)
Industry Position: 28.8% below the Tobacco Products median (#26 of 32)
No single metric tells the full story. See the CTOBF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
China Tobacco International (HK) Co Ltd is engaged in the tobacco business. It operates through various segments namely the Tobacco Leaf Products Export Business, the Tobacco Leaf Product Import Business, the Cigarettes Export Business, the New Tobacco Product Export Business, and the Brazil Operation Business. The company's geographical segments are China (excluding the SARs), Indonesia, Korea, Hong Kong, Philippines, Vietnam, Brazil, Belgium, Poland, Paraguay, Egypt, and others, of which it derives maximum revenue from the PRC. It earns maximum revenue from the Tobacco Leaf Product Import Business.
88GF Score
Get the complete analysis for CTOBF
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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