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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2026-09-21), Churchill Downs's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is €43.86. The stock price of Churchill Downs is €70.50. Therefore, Churchill Downs's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 1.6.
The historical rank and industry rank for Churchill Downs's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
FRA:CHR'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.18 Med: 3.41 Max: 9.06
Current: 1.61
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Churchill Downs was 9.06. The lowest was 1.18. And the median was 3.41.
FRA:CHR's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than 70.99% of 593
companies
in the Travel & Leisure industry
Industry Median: 0.91
vs FRA:CHR: 1.61
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Churchill Downs's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
70.50
/
52.881331954617
=
1.33
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Churchill Downs Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Churchill Downs Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Churchill Downs's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
FRA:CHR vs LNWO, SGHC, RSI: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Gambling subindustry, Churchill Downs's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Churchill Downs Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Travel & Leisure Industry
For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Churchill Downs's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Churchill Downs's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of €43.86 mean?
Churchill Downs (FRA:CHR) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of €43.86 as of Sep. 21, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Churchill Downs and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Churchill Downs ranks #421 out of 593 companies in the Travel & Leisure industry, placing it in the top 71%.
Is Churchill Downs' Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
Churchill Downs' current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is €43.86. Based on the distribution chart, Churchill Downs ranks #421 out of 593 companies in the Travel & Leisure industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Churchill Downs has a GF Score™ of 82/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Churchill Downs' Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to LNWO and SGHC?
According to the Travel & Leisure industry distribution chart, Churchill Downs ranks #421 out of 593 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places Churchill Downs in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.91. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Travel & Leisure company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Travel & Leisure companies is 0.91, based on 593 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Churchill Downs and its competitors. For the Travel & Leisure industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.91 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Churchill Downs's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is €43.86. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Churchill Downs stock overvalued right now?
Churchill Downs (FRA:CHR) has a current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of €43.86. The stock's GF Value™ is €119.18, compared to a current price of €70.50 — trading 40.8% below its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is €43.86. Churchill Downs' overall GF Score™ is 82/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Churchill Downs (FRA:CHR), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is €43.86 as of Sep. 21, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Churchill Downs (FRA:CHR) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Churchill Downs stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of €70.50 is trading 40.8% below its estimated GF Value™ of €119.18.
Key valuation signals for FRA:CHR:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: €43.86
GF Value™: €119.18 vs. price of €70.50 (40.8% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the FRA:CHR stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Churchill Downs Inc is a gaming entertainment, online wagering, and racing company. It operates through three business segments: Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services, and Gaming. The Live and Historical Racing segment includes live and historical pari-mutuel racing. The Wagering Services segment includes the revenue and expenses from pari-mutuel wagers through TwinSpires, companies retail and online sports betting business and Gaming segment includes revenue and expenses for the casino properties and associated racetracks that support the casino license. The Gaming segment generates revenue and expenses from slot machines, video lottery terminals, video poker, HRMs, ancillary food and beverage services, hotel services, commission on pari-mutuel wagering, and racing events.
82GF Score
Get the complete analysis for FRA:CHR
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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