FWRG (First Watch Restaurant Group) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $0.00 (As of Aug. 21, 2026)

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
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Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
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Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group Inc FWRG
75 GF Score
Price $12.62
GF Value $22.41
Valuation Possible Value Trap
! 5 Warning Signs
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What is First Watch Restaurant Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

First Watch Restaurant Group FWRG +1.12% 75 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $0.00 as of Aug. 21, 2026. GuruFocus rates FWRG with a GF Score™ of 75/100 and a GF Value™ of $22.41 (Possible Value Trap). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 234 Restaurants companies, First Watch Restaurant Group ranks worse than 427350% on this metric.

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2026-08-21), First Watch Restaurant Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $0.00. The stock price of First Watch Restaurant Group is $12.62. Therefore, First Watch Restaurant Group's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.0.

The historical rank and industry rank for First Watch Restaurant Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

FWRG's Price-to-Projected-FCF is not ranked *
in the Restaurants industry.
Industry Median: 1.085
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-Projected-FCF only.

First Watch Restaurant Group  (NAS:FWRG) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

First Watch Restaurant Group's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=12.62/
=

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


First Watch Restaurant Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms


First Watch Restaurant Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for First Watch Restaurant Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

First Watch Restaurant Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

First Watch Restaurant Group Annual Data
Trend Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

First Watch Restaurant Group Quarterly Data
Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26 Jun26
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

FWRG vs SG, BLMN, CNNE: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison

For the Restaurants subindustry, First Watch Restaurant Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


First Watch Restaurant Group Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Restaurants Industry

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, First Watch Restaurant Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where First Watch Restaurant Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.


FWRG
75GF Score
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc FWRG
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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First Watch Restaurant Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $0.00 mean?
First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $0.00 as of Aug. 21, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on First Watch Restaurant Group and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, First Watch Restaurant Group ranks #999999 out of 234 companies in the Restaurants industry.
Is First Watch Restaurant Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
First Watch Restaurant Group's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $0.00. Based on the distribution chart, First Watch Restaurant Group ranks #999999 out of 234 companies in the Restaurants industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, First Watch Restaurant Group has a GF Score™ of 75/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does First Watch Restaurant Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to SG and BLMN?
According to the Restaurants industry distribution chart, First Watch Restaurant Group ranks #999999 out of 234 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places First Watch Restaurant Group in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.09. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Restaurants company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Restaurants companies is 1.09, based on 234 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on First Watch Restaurant Group and its competitors. For the Restaurants industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.09 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. First Watch Restaurant Group's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $0.00. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is First Watch Restaurant Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is $22.41, compared to a current price of $12.62 — trading 43.7% below its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $0.00. First Watch Restaurant Group's overall GF Score™ is 75/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $0.00 as of Aug. 21, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, First Watch Restaurant Group stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $12.62 is trading 43.7% below its estimated GF Value™ of $22.41. GuruFocus considers First Watch Restaurant Group to be Possible Value Trap.

Key valuation signals for FWRG:

  • Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $0.00
  • GF Value™: $22.41 vs. price of $12.62 (43.7% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 75/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the FWRG stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


First Watch Restaurant Group Business Description

Address 8725 Pendery Place, Suite 201, Bradenton, FL, USA, 34201
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is a daytime restaurant concept serving made-to-order breakfast, brunch, and lunch using fresh ingredients. The company generates revenues from Restaurant sales and Franchise revenues. It generates maximum revenue from Restaurant sales.
75GF Score

Get the complete analysis for FWRG

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$12.62
Price
$22.41
GF Value