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Harmonic Drive SystemsHSYDF -5.67%76 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $6.63 as of Sep. 01, 2026. GuruFocus rates HSYDF with a GF Score™ of 76/100 and a GF Value™ of $24.46 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 2,038 Industrial Products companies, Harmonic Drive Systems ranks worse than 81.94% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
The historical rank and industry rank for Harmonic Drive Systems's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
HSYDF'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 3.22 Med: 4.25 Max: 7.4
Current: 5.22
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Harmonic Drive Systems was 7.40. The lowest was 3.22. And the median was 4.25.
HSYDF's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than 81.94% of 2038
companies
in the Industrial Products industry
Industry Median: 1.73
vs HSYDF: 5.22
Harmonic Drive Systems (OTCPK:HSYDF) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Harmonic Drive Systems's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
34.59
/
7.0727701260592
=
4.89
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Harmonic Drive Systems Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Harmonic Drive Systems Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Harmonic Drive Systems's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Harmonic Drive Systems Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart
HSYDF vs GEV, ETN, PH: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Specialty Industrial Machinery subindustry, Harmonic Drive Systems's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Harmonic Drive Systems Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Industrial Products Industry
For the Industrial Products industry and Industrials sector, Harmonic Drive Systems's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Harmonic Drive Systems's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Harmonic Drive Systems Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $6.63 mean?
Harmonic Drive Systems (HSYDF) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $6.63 as of Sep. 01, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Harmonic Drive Systems and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Harmonic Drive Systems ranks #1670 out of 2038 companies in the Industrial Products industry, placing it in the top 81.9%.
Is Harmonic Drive Systems' Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
Harmonic Drive Systems' current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $6.63. The Industrial Products industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.73. Harmonic Drive Systems' value of $6.63 is 283.2% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Harmonic Drive Systems ranks #1670 out of 2038 companies in the Industrial Products industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Harmonic Drive Systems has a GF Score™ of 76/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Harmonic Drive Systems' Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to GEV and ETN?
According to the Industrial Products industry distribution chart, Harmonic Drive Systems ranks #1670 out of 2038 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places Harmonic Drive Systems in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.73. Harmonic Drive Systems' value of $6.63 is 283.2% above this benchmark. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for an Industrial Products company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Industrial Products companies is 1.73, based on 2,038 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Harmonic Drive Systems's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $6.63 is 283.2% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Harmonic Drive Systems and its competitors. For the Industrial Products industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.73 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Harmonic Drive Systems's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $6.63. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Harmonic Drive Systems stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Harmonic Drive Systems (HSYDF) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $24.46, compared to a current price of $34.59 — trading 41.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $6.63 and 283.2% above the Industrial Products industry median of 1.73. Harmonic Drive Systems' overall GF Score™ is 76/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Harmonic Drive Systems (HSYDF), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $6.63 as of Sep. 01, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Harmonic Drive Systems (HSYDF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Harmonic Drive Systems stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $34.59 is trading 41.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of $24.46.
GuruFocus considers Harmonic Drive Systems to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for HSYDF:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $6.63
GF Value™: $24.46 vs. price of $34.59 (41.4% above fair value)
Industry Position: 283.2% above the Industrial Products median (#1670 of 2038)
No single metric tells the full story. See the HSYDF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Harmonic Drive Systems manufactures and sells high-precision reduction gears (harmonic reducers) under the Harmonic Drive brand as well as other mechatronics products, including rotary actuators, linear actuators, and AC servo motors. The company also provides planetary gear speed reducers under the AccuDrive and Harmonic Planetary brands. Its products are used in industrial robots, semiconductor production equipment, and other high-precision equipment. HDS was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
76GF Score
Get the complete analysis for HSYDF
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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