Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
Constellation BrandsSTZ -0.57%63 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $137.46 as of Sep. 16, 2026. GuruFocus rates STZ with a GF Score™ of 63/100 and a GF Value™ of $179.32 (Significantly Undervalued). The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review. Among 157 Beverages - Alcoholic companies, Constellation Brands ranks better than 57.32% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
The historical rank and industry rank for Constellation Brands's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
STZ'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.89 Med: 1.95 Max: 2.85
Current: 0.89
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Constellation Brands was 2.85. The lowest was 0.89. And the median was 1.95.
STZ's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than 57.32% of 157
companies
in the Beverages - Alcoholic industry
Industry Median: 1
vs STZ: 0.89
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Constellation Brands's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
122.92
/
136.78250816768
=
0.90
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Constellation Brands Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Constellation Brands Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Constellation Brands's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
STZ vs TAP, SAM: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Beverages - Brewers subindustry, Constellation Brands's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Constellation Brands Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Beverages - Alcoholic Industry
For the Beverages - Alcoholic industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Constellation Brands's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Constellation Brands's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $137.46 mean?
Constellation Brands (STZ) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $137.46 as of Sep. 16, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Constellation Brands and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Constellation Brands ranks #67 out of 157 companies in the Beverages - Alcoholic industry, placing it in the top 42.7%.
Is Constellation Brands' Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
Constellation Brands' current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $137.46. The Beverages - Alcoholic industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.00. Constellation Brands' value of $137.46 is 13646% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Constellation Brands ranks #67 out of 157 companies in the Beverages - Alcoholic industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Constellation Brands has a GF Score™ of 63/100 and is considered Significantly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Constellation Brands' Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to TAP and SAM?
According to the Beverages - Alcoholic industry distribution chart, Constellation Brands ranks #67 out of 157 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This puts Constellation Brands in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.00. Constellation Brands' value of $137.46 is 13646% above this benchmark. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Beverages - Alcoholic company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Beverages - Alcoholic companies is 1.00, based on 157 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Constellation Brands's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $137.46 is 13646% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Constellation Brands and its competitors. For the Beverages - Alcoholic industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.00 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Constellation Brands's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $137.46. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Constellation Brands stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Constellation Brands (STZ) is currently considered Significantly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $179.32, compared to a current price of $122.92 — trading 31.5% below its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $137.46 and 13646% above the Beverages - Alcoholic industry median of 1.00. Constellation Brands' overall GF Score™ is 63/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Constellation Brands (STZ), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $137.46 as of Sep. 16, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Constellation Brands (STZ) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Constellation Brands stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $122.92 is trading 31.5% below its estimated GF Value™ of $179.32.
GuruFocus considers Constellation Brands to be Significantly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for STZ:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $137.46
GF Value™: $179.32 vs. price of $122.92 (31.5% below fair value)
Industry Position: 13646% above the Beverages - Alcoholic median (#67 of 157)
No single metric tells the full story. See the STZ stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Constellation Brands is the largest provider of alcoholic beverages across the beer, wine, and spirits categories in the US, generating more than 90% of revenue from Mexican beer imports under top-selling brands such as Modelo and Corona. The rest of the business includes some remaining wine and spirits brands, categories where the company has pruned assets in recent years. With its exclusive rights tied to the Mexican beer brands effective only in the US, the firm has limited revenue exposure to international markets. Constellation owns a 10% stake in Canopy Growth, a medicinal and recreational cannabis producer in Canada, and has a 50/50 joint venture with glass manufacturer Owens-Illinois in Mexico.
63GF Score
Get the complete analysis for STZ
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
STZ has been successfully added to your 
