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ASML Holding NVXSWX:ASML +0.60%80 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF303.84 as of Jul. 27, 2026, which is 100% below its 10-year median of 3.13. GuruFocus rates XSWX:ASML with a GF Score™ of 80/100 and a GF Value™ of CHF926.50 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 1 warning sign investors should review. Among 604 Semiconductors companies, ASML Holding NV ranks worse than 68.21% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2026-07-27), ASML Holding NV's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF303.84. The stock price of ASML Holding NV is CHF1471.20. Therefore, ASML Holding NV's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 4.8.
The historical rank and industry rank for ASML Holding NV's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
XSWX:ASML'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 2.03 Med: 3.13 Max: 5.52
Current: 4.84
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of ASML Holding NV was 5.52. The lowest was 2.03. And the median was 3.13.
XSWX:ASML's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than 68.21% of 604
companies
in the Semiconductors industry
Industry Median: 2.77
vs XSWX:ASML: 4.84
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
ASML Holding NV's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
1471.20
/
315.22959017763
=
4.67
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
ASML Holding NV Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
ASML Holding NV Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for ASML Holding NV's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
XSWX:ASML vs AMAT, LRCX, KLAC: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials subindustry, ASML Holding NV's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
ASML Holding NV Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Semiconductors Industry
For the Semiconductors industry and Technology sector, ASML Holding NV's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where ASML Holding NV's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of CHF303.84 mean?
ASML Holding NV (XSWX:ASML) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of CHF303.84 as of Jul. 27, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on ASML Holding NV and its competitors. This is 9607% above median its historical median of 3.13. Over the past decade, ASML Holding NV's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 2.03 to 5.52. According to the industry distribution chart, ASML Holding NV ranks #412 out of 604 companies in the Semiconductors industry, placing it in the top 68.2%.
Is ASML Holding NV's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
ASML Holding NV's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of CHF303.84 is 9607% above median its 10-year median of 3.13. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 2.03 to a high of 5.52. Based on the distribution chart, ASML Holding NV ranks #412 out of 604 companies in the Semiconductors industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, ASML Holding NV has a GF Score™ of 80/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does ASML Holding NV's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to AMAT and LRCX?
According to the Semiconductors industry distribution chart, ASML Holding NV ranks #412 out of 604 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places ASML Holding NV in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 2.77. Historically, ASML Holding NV's own Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 2.03 to 5.52 over the past decade. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Semiconductors company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Semiconductors companies is 2.77, based on 604 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on ASML Holding NV and its competitors. For the Semiconductors industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 2.77 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. ASML Holding NV's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF303.84, which is 9607% above median its own 10-year median of 3.13. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is ASML Holding NV stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, ASML Holding NV (XSWX:ASML) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is CHF926.50, compared to a current price of CHF1,471.20 — trading 58.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF303.84, which is 9607% above median its 10-year median of 3.13. ASML Holding NV's overall GF Score™ is 80/100 with 1 warning sign to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For ASML Holding NV (XSWX:ASML), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF303.84 as of Jul. 27, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is ASML Holding NV (XSWX:ASML) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, ASML Holding NV stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of CHF1,471.20 is trading 58.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of CHF926.50.
GuruFocus considers ASML Holding NV to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for XSWX:ASML:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: CHF303.84 (9607% above median its 10-year median of 3.13)
GF Value™: CHF926.50 vs. price of CHF1,471.20 (58.8% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the XSWX:ASML stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
ASML is the leader in lithography systems for manufacturing semiconductors with 90% market share. Lithography is the process in which a light source is used to expose circuit patterns from a photo mask onto a semiconductor wafer. Lithography allows chipmakers to increase the number of transistors on the same area of silicon, with lithography historically representing a high portion of the cost of making cutting-edge chips. ASML outsources the manufacturing of most of its parts, acting like an assembler. ASML's largest clients are TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, and Micron.
80GF Score
Get the complete analysis for XSWX:ASML
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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