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ASML Holding NVXSWX:ASML -1.51%80 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 21.74% as of Mar. 2026, which is 1% above its 10-year median of 21.55. GuruFocus rates XSWX:ASML with a GF Score™ of 80/100 and a GF Value™ of CHF902.33 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review. Among 599 Semiconductors companies, ASML Holding NV ranks better than 95.16% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. ASML Holding NV's forward rate of return for was 21.74%.
The historical rank and industry rank for ASML Holding NV's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
XSWX:ASML'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.49 Med: 21.55 Max: 22.75
Current: 21.27
During the past 13 years, ASML Holding NV's highest Forward Rate of Return was 22.75. The lowest was -3.49. And the median was 21.55.
XSWX:ASML's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 95.16% of 599
companies
in the Semiconductors industry
Industry Median: 0.6
vs XSWX:ASML: 21.27
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
ASML Holding NV Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
ASML Holding NV Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for ASML Holding NV's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
ASML Holding NV Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
XSWX:ASML vs AMAT, LRCX, KLAC: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials subindustry, ASML Holding NV's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
ASML Holding NV Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Semiconductors Industry
For the Semiconductors industry and Technology sector, ASML Holding NV's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where ASML Holding NV's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
ASML Holding NV Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 21.74% mean?
ASML Holding NV (XSWX:ASML) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 21.74% as of Mar. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on ASML Holding NV and its competitors. This is near median its historical median of 21.55. According to the industry distribution chart, ASML Holding NV ranks #29 out of 599 companies in the Semiconductors industry, placing it in the top 4.8%.
Is ASML Holding NV's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
ASML Holding NV's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 21.74% is near median its 10-year median of 21.55. The Semiconductors industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 0.60. ASML Holding NV's value of 21.74% is 3523.3% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, ASML Holding NV ranks #29 out of 599 companies in the Semiconductors industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, ASML Holding NV has a GF Score™ of 80/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does ASML Holding NV's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to AMAT and LRCX?
According to the Semiconductors industry distribution chart, ASML Holding NV ranks #29 out of 599 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places ASML Holding NV in the top 5% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 0.60. ASML Holding NV's value of 21.74% is 3523.3% above this benchmark. While the company's 10-year median is 21.55 vs. the industry median of 0.60, ASML Holding NV has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Semiconductors company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Semiconductors companies is 0.60, based on 599 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. ASML Holding NV's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 21.74% is 3523.3% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on ASML Holding NV and its competitors. For the Semiconductors industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 0.60 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. ASML Holding NV's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 21.74%, which is near median its own 10-year median of 21.55. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is ASML Holding NV stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, ASML Holding NV (XSWX:ASML) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is CHF902.33, compared to a current price of CHF1,420.00 — trading 57.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 21.74%, which is near median its 10-year median of 21.55 and 3523.3% above the Semiconductors industry median of 0.60. ASML Holding NV's overall GF Score™ is 80/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For ASML Holding NV (XSWX:ASML), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 21.74% as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is ASML Holding NV (XSWX:ASML) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, ASML Holding NV stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of CHF1,420.00 is trading 57.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of CHF902.33.
GuruFocus considers ASML Holding NV to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for XSWX:ASML:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 21.74% (near median its 10-year median of 21.55)
GF Value™: CHF902.33 vs. price of CHF1,420.00 (57.4% above fair value)
Industry Position: 3523.3% above the Semiconductors median (#29 of 599)
No single metric tells the full story. See the XSWX:ASML stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
ASML is the leader in lithography systems for manufacturing semiconductors with 90% market share. Lithography is the process in which a light source is used to expose circuit patterns from a photo mask onto a semiconductor wafer. Lithography allows chipmakers to increase the number of transistors on the same area of silicon, with lithography historically representing a high portion of the cost of making cutting-edge chips. ASML outsources the manufacturing of most of its parts, acting like an assembler. ASML's largest clients are TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, and Micron.
80GF Score
Get the complete analysis for XSWX:ASML
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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