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Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
MicrosoftXSWX:MSFT +0.70%100 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF142.14 as of Aug. 11, 2026, which is 100% below its 10-year median of 2.72. GuruFocus rates XSWX:MSFT with a GF Score™ of 100/100 and a GF Value™ of CHF460.36 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,456 Software companies, Microsoft ranks worse than 73.42% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2026-08-11), Microsoft's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF142.14. The stock price of Microsoft is CHF404.70. Therefore, Microsoft's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 2.9.
The historical rank and industry rank for Microsoft's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
XSWX:MSFT'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.55 Med: 2.72 Max: 3.42
Current: 2.85
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Microsoft was 3.42. The lowest was 1.55. And the median was 2.72.
XSWX:MSFT's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than 73.42% of 1456
companies
in the Software industry
Industry Median: 1.44
vs XSWX:MSFT: 2.85
Microsoft (XSWX:MSFT) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Microsoft's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
404.70
/
153.38889965803
=
2.64
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Microsoft Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Microsoft Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Microsoft's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
XSWX:MSFT vs ORCL, PLTR, PANW: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Software - Infrastructure subindustry, Microsoft's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Microsoft Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Software Industry
For the Software industry and Technology sector, Microsoft's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Microsoft's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Microsoft Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of CHF142.14 mean?
Microsoft (XSWX:MSFT) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of CHF142.14 as of Aug. 11, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Microsoft and its competitors. This is 5126% above median its historical median of 2.72. Over the past decade, Microsoft's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 1.55 to 3.42. According to the industry distribution chart, Microsoft ranks #1069 out of 1456 companies in the Software industry, placing it in the top 73.4%.
Is Microsoft's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
Microsoft's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of CHF142.14 is 5126% above median its 10-year median of 2.72. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 1.55 to a high of 3.42. Based on the distribution chart, Microsoft ranks #1069 out of 1456 companies in the Software industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Microsoft has a GF Score™ of 100/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Microsoft's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to ORCL and PLTR?
According to the Software industry distribution chart, Microsoft ranks #1069 out of 1456 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places Microsoft in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.44. Historically, Microsoft's own Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 1.55 to 3.42 over the past decade. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Software company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Software companies is 1.44, based on 1,456 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Microsoft and its competitors. For the Software industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.44 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Microsoft's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF142.14, which is 5126% above median its own 10-year median of 2.72. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Microsoft stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Microsoft (XSWX:MSFT) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is CHF460.36, compared to a current price of CHF404.70 — trading 12.1% below its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF142.14, which is 5126% above median its 10-year median of 2.72. Microsoft's overall GF Score™ is 100/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Microsoft (XSWX:MSFT), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF142.14 as of Aug. 11, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Microsoft (XSWX:MSFT) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Microsoft stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of CHF404.70 is trading 12.1% below its estimated GF Value™ of CHF460.36.
GuruFocus considers Microsoft to be Modestly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for XSWX:MSFT:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: CHF142.14 (5126% above median its 10-year median of 2.72)
GF Value™: CHF460.36 vs. price of CHF404.70 (12.1% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the XSWX:MSFT stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
100GF Score
Get the complete analysis for XSWX:MSFT
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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