Biogen (NAS:BIIB) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $452.24 (As of Today)

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As of today (2023-02-02), Biogen's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $452.24.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Biogen's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Biogen is 35.52%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Biogen's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Biogen was 7.58. The lowest was 0.17. And the median was 0.53.

Biogen Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Biogen's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Biogen Annual Data

Trend

Dec12

Dec13

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

452.69

820.99

1,325.54

1,145.04

Biogen Quarterly Data
	Dec17	Mar18	Jun18	Sep18	Dec18	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)																430.47	-	-	-	-

Biogen Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 14.10%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 14.10% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 14.10%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $19.640.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Biogen's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	=	EPS without NRI	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.141)/(1+0.1) = 1.0372727272727
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

EPS without NRI

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

EPS without NRI

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

19.640

23.0266

452.24

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
	=	(452.24	-	291.60)	/	452.24
	=	35.52 %

Biogen (NAS:BIIB) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Biogen Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Biogen's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Biogen (NAS:BIIB) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Biogen Inc (NAS:BIIB) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BIIB:Mexico IDP:Germany BIIB34:Brazil BIIB:Austria BIIB:Argentina

Address

225 Binney Street, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02142

Website

http://www.biogen.com

Biogen and Idec merged in 2003, combining forces to market Biogen's multiple sclerosis drug Avonex and Idec's cancer drug Rituxan. Today, Rituxan and next-generation antibody Gazyva are marketed via a collaboration with Roche. Biogen also markets novel MS drugs Plegridy, Tysabri, Tecfidera, and Vumerity. In Japan, Biogen's MS portfolio is co-promoted by Eisai. Hemophilia therapies Eloctate and Alprolix (partnered with SOBI) were spun off as part of Bioverativ in 2017. Biogen has several drug candidates in phase 3 trials in neurology and neurodegenerative diseases and has launched Spinraza with partner Ionis. Aduhelm was approved as the firm's first Alzheimer's disease therapy in June 2021, followed by Leqembi in January 2023.

Executives

Christopher Viehbacher	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O AXCELLA HEALTH, INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Nicole Murphy	officer: Head of Pharm Ops and Tech	BIOGEN INC., 225 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Rachid Izzar	officer: Head of Alzheimer's Disease	BIOGEN INC., 225 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Jones William D /ca/	director
Maria C Freire	director	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Michael R Mcdonnell	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O IQVIA HOLDINGS INC., 83 WOOSTER HEIGHTS ROAD, DANBURY CT 06810
Alphonse Galdes	officer: EVP Pharmaceutical Oper & Tech	BIOGEN INC., 225 BINNEY ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
William A Hawkins	director	MEDTRONIC INC, 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY, MS LC310, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432-5604
Jesus B Mantas	director	BIOGEN INC., 225 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Robin Kramer	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	999 VANDERBILT BEACH ROAD, 3RD FLOOR, NAPLES FL 34109
Daniel Karp	officer: EVP, Corporate Development	225 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Jeffrey D Capello	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O NEOGEN CORP., 620 LESHER PLACE, LANSING MI 48912
Chirfi Guindo	officer: EVP Glob. Mkt Acc & Cust Innov	C/O BIOGEN INC., 225 BINNEY ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Ginger Gregory	officer: EVP, Human Resources	C/O BIOGEN INC., 225 BINNEY ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Jean-paul Kress	officer: EVP Pres Int'l & Global Hd GTO	215 FIRST STREET, SUITE 415, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142