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Alphabet(Google) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $147.68 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-08-10), Alphabet(Google)'s intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $147.68.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Alphabet(Google)'s Predictability Rank is 2-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Alphabet(Google) is 18.30%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Alphabet(Google)'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

GOOG' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.2   Med: 1.77   Max: 4.32
Current: 0.82

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Alphabet(Google) was 4.32. The lowest was 0.20. And the median was 1.77.

GOOG's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked better than
57.89% of 38 companies
in the Interactive Media industry
Industry Median: 1.00 vs GOOG: 0.82

Alphabet(Google) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Alphabet(Google)'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Alphabet(Google) Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 12.10 - - - 169.80

Alphabet(Google) Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - 169.80 152.44 148.24

Alphabet(Google) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 15.30%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 15.30% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 15.30%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $5.376.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the Earnings Per Share without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Alphabet(Google)'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.153)/(1+0.09) = 1.0577981651376
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=5.376*27.4705
=147.68

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(147.68-120.65)/147.68
=18.30 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Alphabet(Google)  (NAS:GOOG) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Alphabet(Google) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Alphabet(Google)'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Alphabet(Google) Business Description

Alphabet(Google) logo
Address
1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA, USA, 94043
Alphabet Inc is a holding company, with Google, the Internet media giant, as a wholly owned subsidiary. Google generates 99% of Alphabet revenue, of which more than 85% is from online ads. Google's other revenue is from sales of apps and content on Google Play and YouTube, as well as cloud service fees and other licensing revenue. Sales of hardware such as Chromebooks, the Pixel smartphone, and smart homes products, which include Nest and Google Home, also contribute to other revenue. Alphabet's moonshot investments are in its other bets segment, where it bets on technology to enhance health (Verily), faster Internet access to homes (Google Fiber), self-driving cars (Waymo), and more. Alphabet's operating margin has been 25%-30%, with Google at 30% and other bets operating at a loss.
Executives
Hennessy John L director
Mather Ann director
Porat Ruth officer: SVP, CFO C/O GOOGLE INC. 1600 AMPHITHEATRE PRKW MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Pichai Sundar director, officer: Chief Executive Officer GOOGLE INC. 1600 AMPHITHEATRE PARKWAY MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Doerr L John director C/O KLEINER PERKINS CAUFIELD & BYERS 2750 SAND HILL ROAD MENLO PARK CA 94025
Arnold Frances director 5200 ILLUMINA WAY SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Ferguson Roger W. Jr. director CORNING INCORPORATED ONE RIVERFRONT PLAZA CORNING NY 14831
Shriram Kavitark Ram director 1600 AMPHITHEATRE PARKWAY MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Mulally Alan R director P.O. BOX 995 MERCER ISLAND WA 98040
Washington Robin L director 333 LAKESIDE DRIVE FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Brin Sergey director, 10 percent owner 555 BRYANT STREET, #367 PALO ALTO CA 94031
Drummond David C officer: SVP, Corporate Development 1600 AMIPHITHEATRE PARKWAY BUILDING 41 MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Schmidt Eric E director 1010 ALMA STREET MENLO PARK CA 94025
Greene Diane B director C/O ALPHABET INC., 1600 AMPHITHEATRE PKWY MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Campbell James Grier officer: VP, Alphabet Corp. Controller 1600 AMPHITHEATRE PKWY MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043

Alphabet(Google) Headlines

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