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Qualcomm Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $118.08 (As of Today)
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As of today (2021-10-20), Qualcomm's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $118.08.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Qualcomm's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Qualcomm is -12.21%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Qualcomm's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Qualcomm was 3.40. The lowest was 0.43. And the median was 1.07.


Qualcomm Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Qualcomm's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Qualcomm Annual Data
Trend Sep11 Sep12 Sep13 Sep14 Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 90.95 - - - -

Qualcomm Quarterly Data
Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Qualcomm Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 8%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $8.000.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the Earnings Per Share without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Qualcomm's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.08) = 0.97222222222222
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.08) = 0.96296296296296

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=8.000*14.7595
=118.08

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(118.08-132.50)/118.08
=-12.21 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Qualcomm  (NAS:QCOM) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Qualcomm Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Qualcomm's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Qualcomm Business Description

Qualcomm logo
Industry
Technology » Semiconductors NAICS : 334118 SIC : 3577
Address
5775 Morehouse Drive, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121-1714
Qualcomm develops and licenses wireless technology and also designs chips for smartphones. The company's key patents revolve around CDMA and OFDMA technologies, which are standards in wireless communications that are the backbone of all 3G and 4G networks. The firm is a leader in 5G network technology as well. Qualcomm's IP is licensed by virtually all wireless device makers. The firm is also the world's largest wireless chip vendor, supplying nearly every premier handset maker with leading-edge processors.
Executives
Amon Cristiano R officer: President 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Rosenberg Donald J officer: EVP & General Counsel QUALCOMM INCORPORATED 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Rogers Alexander H officer: EVP & President, QTL 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Modoff Brian officer: EVP, Strategy and M&A 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Thompson James H officer: EVP, Engineering & CTO 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Mollenkopf Steven M director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Mclaughlin Mark D director C/O PALO ALTO NETWORKS, INC. 4401 GREAT AMERICA PKWY SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Miller Jamie S director GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY 5 NECCO STREET BOSTON MA 02210
Fields Mark director FORD MOTOR COMPANY ONE AMERICAN ROAD DEARBORN MI 48126
Smit Neil director C/O AMERICA ONLINE LATIN AMERICA, INC. 6600 N. ANDREWS AVE., SUITE 400 FT. LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Palkhiwala Akash J. officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Polek Erin L officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Tricoire Jean-pascal director 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Ace Heather S officer: EVP, Human Resources 3721 VALLEY CENTRE DR SUITE 500 SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Rosenfeld Irene B director 110 SE 6TH STREET 20TH FLOOR FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301

Qualcomm Headlines

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