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D.R. Horton Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $591.80 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-08-12), D.R. Horton's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $591.80.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

D.R. Horton's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for D.R. Horton is 86.70%.

The historical rank and industry rank for D.R. Horton's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

DHI' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.11   Med: 0.25   Max: 0.42
Current: 0.13

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of D.R. Horton was 0.42. The lowest was 0.11. And the median was 0.25.

DHI's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked better than
71.43% of 14 companies
in the Homebuilding & Construction industry
Industry Median: 0.19 vs DHI: 0.13

D.R. Horton Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for D.R. Horton's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

D.R. Horton Annual Data
Trend Sep12 Sep13 Sep14 Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20 Sep21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - 300.66 481.44

D.R. Horton Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 419.94 481.44 524.82 530.61 591.80

D.R. Horton Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 20% which is NO less than 20% => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $15.570.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the Earnings Per Share without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

D.R. Horton's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.09) = 1.1009174311927
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=15.570*38.009
=591.80

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(591.8-78.70)/591.8
=86.70 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


D.R. Horton  (NYSE:DHI) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


D.R. Horton Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of D.R. Horton's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


D.R. Horton Business Description

D.R. Horton logo
Address
1341 Horton Circle, Arlington, TX, USA, 76011
D.R. Horton is a leading homebuilder in the United States with operations in 98 markets across 31 states. D.R. Horton mainly builds single-family detached homes (over 90% of home sales revenue) and offers products to entry-level, move-up, luxury buyers, and active adults. The company offers homebuyers mortgage financing and title agency services through its financial services segment. D.R. Horton's headquarters are in Arlington, Texas, and it manages six regional segments across the United States.
Executives
Romanowski Paul J officer: EVP and COO 1341 HORTON CIRCLE ARLINGTON TX 76011
Carson Benjamin Sr director PO BOX 3599 BATTLE CREEK MI 49016-3599
Miller Maribess L director 2711 N. HASKELL AVENUE SUITE 2300 DALLAS TX 75204
Odom Aron M. officer: VP, Controller and PAO 1341 HORTON CIRCLE ARLINGTON TX 76011
Murray Michael J officer: EVP and COO 1361 HORTON CIRCLE ARLINGTON TX 76011
Allen Barbara K director 1361 HORTON CIRCLE ARLINGTON TX 76011
Auld David V officer: EVP and COO 1361 HORTON CIRCLE ARLINGTON TX 76011
Buchanan Michael R director 1341 HORTON CIRCLE ARLINGTON TX 76011
Hewatt Michael W director 1361 HORTON CIRCLE ARLINGTON TX 76011
Anderson Bradley S director 1361 HORTON CIRCLE ARLINGTON TX 76011
Dwyer Stacey officer: EVP and Treasurer 301 COMMERCE STREET SUITE 500 FORT WORTH TX 76102
Horton Donald R director, officer: Chairman 1361 HORTON CIRCLE ARLINGTON TX 76011
Wheat Bill W director, officer: EVP and CFO 1361 HORTON CIRCLE ARLINGTON TX 76011
Tomnitz Donald J director, officer: President and CEO 2221 E. LAMAR BLVD. SUITE 790 ARLINGTON TX 76006
Scott Bobby G director 301 COMMERCE STREET SUITE 500 FORT WORTH TX 76102

D.R. Horton Headlines

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