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Medtronic Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $48.32 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-09-29), Medtronic's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $48.32.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Medtronic's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Medtronic is -70.92%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Medtronic's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Medtronic was 4.36. The lowest was 0.41. And the median was 1.39.


Medtronic Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Medtronic's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Medtronic Annual Data
Trend Apr13 Apr14 Apr15 Apr16 Apr17 Apr18 Apr19 Apr20 Apr21 Apr22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 30.63 46.35 57.27 - -

Medtronic Quarterly Data
Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 Jul18 Oct18 Jan19 Apr19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22 Jul22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Medtronic Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $3.870.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the Earnings Per Share without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Medtronic's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.1) = 0.95454545454545
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=3.870*12.485
=48.32

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(48.32-82.59)/48.32
=-70.92 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Medtronic  (NYSE:MDT) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Medtronic Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Medtronic's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Medtronic Business Description

Medtronic logo
Industry
Address
Lower Hatch Street, 20 On Hatch, Dublin, IRL, 2
One of the largest medical device companies, Medtronic develops and manufactures therapeutic medical devices for chronic diseases. Its portfolio includes pacemakers, defibrillators, heart valves, stents, insulin pumps, spinal fixation devices, neurovascular products, advanced energy, and surgical tools. The company markets its products to healthcare institutions and physicians in the United States and overseas. Foreign sales account for almost 50% of the company's total sales.
Executives
Fong Ivan K officer: EVP GENERAL COUNSEL & SECR 3M CENTER ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Kirk Jennifer M officer: Chief Accounting Officer 5 GREENWAY PLAZA SUITE 110 HOUSTON TX 77046
Lofton Kevin E director GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. 333 LAKESIDE DRIVE FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Wall Brett A. officer: EVP & Group Pres Restora Thera 710 MEDTRONIC PARKWAY LC300 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Salmon Sean officer: EVP & Group President Diabetes MEDTRONIC PLC, 710 MEDTRONIC PARKWAY LC300 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Goldsmith Andrea Jo director 1220 AUGUSTA DRIVE SUITE 600 HOUSTON TX 77057
Liddicoat John R officer: EVP & President of Americas MEDTRONIC PLC 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY, MS LC300 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
White Robert John officer: EVP & President MITG MEDTRONIC PLC 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY MS LC300 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Parkhill Karen L officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer 1717 MAIN STREET, MC 6402 DALLAS TX 75201
Reddy Preetha director APOLLO HOSPITALS 21 GREAMS LN, OFF GREAMS RD CHENNAI K7 600006
Ellis Gary Lee officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer THE TORO COMPANY 8111 LYNDALE AVENUE SOUTH BLOOMINGTON MN 55420
Hanson Bryan C officer: EVP AND PRESIDENT, COVIDIEN ZIMMER BIOMET HOLDINGS 345 E. MAIN STREET WARSAW IN 46580
Hakami Hooman officer: EVP & Group President Diabetes 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY MSLC300 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Oconnell Christopher J officer: See Remarks MEDTRONIC, INC. 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Lenehan James T director C/O MEDTRONIC INC 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY MS LC300 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432

Medtronic Headlines

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