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Align Technology (NAS:ALGN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $208.76 (As of Today)
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As of today (2023-09-23), Align Technology's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $208.76.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Align Technology's Predictability Rank is 5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Align Technology is -43.02%.

The industry rank for Align Technology's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

ALGN's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked better than
59.49% of 79 companies
in the Medical Devices & Instruments industry
Industry Median: 2.15 vs ALGN: 1.43

Align Technology Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Align Technology's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Align Technology Annual Data
Trend Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - 278.45 408.02 103.09

Align Technology Quarterly Data
Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 185.83 152.47 103.09 175.04 229.31

Align Technology Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 17.50%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Align Technology's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 17.50%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 17.50%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $7.901.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Align Technology's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.175)/(1+0.11) = 1.0585585585586
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=7.901*26.4226
=208.76

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(208.76-298.56)/208.76
=-43.02 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Align Technology  (NAS:ALGN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Align Technology Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Align Technology's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Align Technology (NAS:ALGN) Business Description

Align Technology logo
Address
410 North Scottsdale Road, Suite 1300, Tempe, AZ, USA, 85281
Align Technology is the leading manufacturer of clear aligners. Invisalign, its main product, was approved by the FDA in 1998, and it has since dominated, controlling over 90% of the market. Invisalign can treat roughly 90% of all malocclusion cases (misaligned teeth), and there are over 230,000 Invisalign-trained dentists and orthodontists. In 2022, Invisalign treated over 2 million cases, or roughly 10% of all orthodontic cases for the year, and it has treated over 14 million patients since its launch. Align also sells intraoral scanners under the brand iTero, which captures digital impressions of patients' teeth and illustrates treatment plans. Over 85% of Invisalign cases are submitted by digital scans and iTero scans make up over half of these scans.
Executives
Anne Myong director 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95141
Kevin J Dallas director C/O ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC., 2560 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Susan E Siegel director 3000 SAND HILL ROAD, BLDG 3 STE 290, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Markus Christof Sebastian officer: SVP & Mng Dir EMEA 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Pudipeddi Vamsi Mohan Raj officer: SVP, Chief Marketing Officer 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Julie Ann Coletti officer: SVP, Chief Legal & Regulatory 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Warren S Thaler director C/O ALIGN TECHNOLOGY, INC., 410 NORTH SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 1300, TEMPE AZ 85281
Joseph Lacob director 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Yuval Shaked officer: SVP and Mgng Director, Itero C/O ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC., 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Lynn Pendergrass officer: VP, Americas 3333 BEVERLY ROAD, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60179
Stuart A Hockridge officer: VP, Global Human Resources C/O ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC., 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
John Morici officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC., 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 94131
Sreelakshmi Kolli officer: VP, Info Technology C/O ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC., 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 94131
Jennifer Olson officer: VP& Mng Dir. D-DCC C/O ALIGN TECHNOLOGY, INC., 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 94131
Jennifer Erfurth officer: VP, Global HR C/O ALIGN TECHNOLOGY, INC., 2560 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131