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Amgen (NAS:AMGN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $258.09 (As of Today)
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As of today (2023-11-30), Amgen's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $258.09.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Amgen's Predictability Rank is 3.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Amgen is -4.48%.

The industry rank for Amgen's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

AMGN's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked better than
62.9% of 124 companies
in the Drug Manufacturers industry
Industry Median: 1.71 vs AMGN: 1.04

Amgen Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Amgen's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Amgen Annual Data
Trend Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 397.27 373.06 498.27 342.55 261.40

Amgen Quarterly Data
Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 319.23 261.40 225.29 289.81 258.09

Competitive Comparison

For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Amgen's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Amgen Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Amgen's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Amgen's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.



Amgen Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.33%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 8.80%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Amgen's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 8.80%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 8.80%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $17.446.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Amgen's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.088)/(1+0.11) = 0.98018018018018
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=17.446*14.7938
=258.09

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(258.09-269.64)/258.09
=-4.48 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Amgen  (NAS:AMGN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Amgen Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Amgen's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Amgen (NAS:AMGN) Business Description

Industry
Address
One Amgen Center Drive, Thousand Oaks, CA, USA, 91320-1799
Amgen is a leader in biotechnology-based human therapeutics, with historical expertise in renal disease and cancer supportive-care products. Flagship drugs include red blood cell boosters Epogen and Aranesp, immune system boosters Neupogen and Neulasta, and Enbrel and Otezla for inflammatory diseases. Amgen introduced its first cancer therapeutic, Vectibix, in 2006 and markets bone-strengthening drug Prolia/Xgeva (approved 2010) and Evenity (2019). The acquisition of Onyx bolstered the firm's therapeutic oncology portfolio with Kyprolis. Recent launches include Repatha (cholesterol-lowering), Aimovig (migraine), Lumakras (lung cancer), and Tezspire (asthma). Amgen's biosimilar portfolio includes Mvasi (biosimilar Avastin), Kanjinti (biosimilar Herceptin), and Amjevita (biosimilar Humira).
Executives
Matthew C. Busch officer: VP, Finance & CAO ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Michael V Drake director ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Derek Miller officer: SVP, Human Resources ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Rachna Khosla officer: SVP, Business Development ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Omar Ishrak director 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY, MS LC300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Amy E Miles director
Linda H. Louie officer: VP, Finance & CAO ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Nancy A. Grygiel officer: SVP & CCO ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Peter H. Griffith officer: EVP & CFO ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Murdo Gordon officer: EVP Global Commercial Ops C/O BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY, 345 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10154
David M Reese officer: EVP, Research and Development ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Brian Druker director ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320-1799
Wanda M Austin director 6001 BOLLINGER CANYON ROAD, SAN RAMON CA 94583
Charles M Holley director
Lori A Johnston officer: SVP, HR C/O AMGEN INC., ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320