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Biohaven (NYSE:BHVN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $-51.15 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-11-30), Biohaven's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-51.15.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Biohaven's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Biohaven is N/A.

The industry rank for Biohaven's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:


Biohaven (NYSE:BHVN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Biohaven's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Biohaven Annual Data
Trend Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) - -

Biohaven Quarterly Data
Dec20 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Jun22 Sep22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only - - - - -

Biohaven Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-4.097.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Biohaven's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.1) = 0.95454545454545
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=-4.097*12.485
=-51.15

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(-51.15-15.82)/-51.15
=N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Biohaven  (NYSE:BHVN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Biohaven Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Biohaven's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Biohaven (NYSE:BHVN) Business Description

Biohaven logo
Industry
Comparable Companies
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
Biohaven Ltd is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with a portfolio of innovative therapies to improve the lives of patients with debilitating neurological and neuropsychiatric diseases, including rare disorders. Biohaven's Neuroinnovation portfolio includes FDA-approved Nurtec ODT (rimegepant) for the acute and preventive treatment of migraine (EMA-approved as Vydura (rimegepant) for the acute treatment of migraine with or without aura, and prophylaxis of episodic migraine.
Executives
Robert J Hugin director C/O THE MEDICINES CO 8 CAMPUS DR PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Michael Thomas Heffernan director C/O CORNERSTONE THERAPEUTICS INC. 1255 CRESCENT GREEN DRIVE, SUITE 250 CARY NC 27518
Julia P Gregory director 8800 TECHNOLOGY FOREST PLACE THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Gregory Bailey director 4 A CHESHAM STREET LONDON X0 SW1X8DT
Kimberly Gentile officer: SVP, Clinical Operations C/O BIOHAVEN PHARMACEUTICAL HOLDING COMP 234 CHURCH STREET NEW HAVEN CT 06510
John W Childs director 111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE SUITE 2900 BOSTON MA 02199
Vlad Coric director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O BIOHAVEN PHARMACEUTICAL HOLDING COMP 234 CHURCH STREET NEW HAVEN CT 06510
Irina Antonijevic director 215 CHURCH STREET NEW HAVEN CT 06510
Matthew Buten officer: Chief Financial Officer 215 CHURCH STREET NEW HAVEN CT 06510
Kishan Mehta director 540 WEST 49TH STREET UNIT# PH1N NEW YORK NY 10019
Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding Co Ltd. 10 percent owner 215 CHURCH STREET NEW HAVEN CT 06510
Bruce Car officer: Chief Scientific Officer AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 88 SIDNEY STREET CAMBRIDGE MA 02139

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