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Cornerstone Building Brands (NYSE:CNR) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $-15.83 (As of Today)
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As of today (2023-10-01), Cornerstone Building Brands's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-15.83.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Cornerstone Building Brands's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Cornerstone Building Brands is N/A.

The industry rank for Cornerstone Building Brands's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

CNR's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Construction industry.
Industry Median: 0.85
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Cornerstone Building Brands Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Cornerstone Building Brands's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Cornerstone Building Brands Annual Data
Trend Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Cornerstone Building Brands Quarterly Data
Apr17 Jul17 Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 Jul18 Oct18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Cornerstone Building Brands Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Cornerstone Building Brands's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-1.372.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Cornerstone Building Brands's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=-1.372*11.5406
=-15.83

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(-15.83-24.66)/-15.83
=N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Cornerstone Building Brands  (NYSE:CNR) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Cornerstone Building Brands Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Cornerstone Building Brands (NYSE:CNR) Business Description

Cornerstone Building Brands logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5020 Weston Parkway, Suite 400, Cary, NC, USA, 27513
Cornerstone Building Brands Inc constructs and sells building materials for the commercial, residential, and repair industries in North America. The company operates in three segments: commercial, which provides metal products and coil coating services for commercial construction; siding, which offers vinyl and steel siding, aluminum coil and gutters, roofing accessories, moldings, window and door trim, rain removal systems, vents, fences, and railings; and windows, which includes vinyl, aluminum, and wooden windows as well as steel, wood, and fiberglass doors. All three segments contribute sizably to total revenue.
Executives
Rose Lee director, officer: PRESIDENT & CEO C/O CROWN HOLDINGS, INC., 770 TOWNSHIP LINE ROAD, YARDLEY PA 19067
Judith A Reinsdorf director C. R. BARD, INC., 730 CENTRAL AVENUE, MURRAY HILL NJ 07974
Alena Brenner officer: EVP, GC and Corp. Sec. 5020 WESTON PARKWAY, SUITE 400 CARY NC 27513
Jeffrey S. Lee officer: EVP, CFO 5020 WESTON PARKWAY, SUITE 400 CARY NC 27513
Katy Theroux officer: Executive VP, Chief HR Officer 10943 N. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY W. HOUSTON TX 77056
Daniel C. Janki director 5020 WESTON PARKWAY, SUITE 400, CARY NC 27513
Timothy J. Obrien director C/O NCI BUILDING SYSTEMS, INC. 10943 NORTH SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY WEST HOUSTON TX 77064
George L. Ball director 10943 N. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY W., HOUSTON TX 77064
William E Jackson director ONE NEENAH CENTER, 4TH FLOOR P.O. BOX 669 NEENAH WI 54957
Kathleen J Affeldt director
John J Holland director 26602 W. GREENTREE, OLATHE KS 66061
James Keppler officer: EVP, OPERATIONS 5020 WESTON PARKWAY SUITE 400 CARY NC 27513
James Wilbert W Jr director 16100 SOUTH LATHROP AVENUE, HARVEY IL 60426
Wayne Irmiter officer: SVP, CAO 5020 WESTON PARKWAY CAY NC 27513
Atrium Window Holdings, Llc 10 percent owner C/O GOLDEN GATE PRIVATE EQUITY, INC. 1 EMBARCADERO CENTER SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111