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Columbia Banking System (Columbia Banking System) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $43.59 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)


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What is Columbia Banking System Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-04-27), Columbia Banking System's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $43.59.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Columbia Banking System's Predictability Rank is 4.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Columbia Banking System is 50.49%.

The industry rank for Columbia Banking System's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

COLB's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked
in the Banks industry.
Industry Median: 0.44 vs COLB: 0.46

Columbia Banking System Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Columbia Banking System's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Columbia Banking System Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Columbia Banking System Annual Data
Trend Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - 40.22 41.75 46.68 47.17

Columbia Banking System Quarterly Data
Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 46.68 42.28 46.58 41.92 47.17

Competitive Comparison of Columbia Banking System's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Columbia Banking System's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Columbia Banking System's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Columbia Banking System's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Columbia Banking System's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.



Columbia Banking System Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5.10%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Columbia Banking System's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 5.10%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5.10%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $3.753.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Columbia Banking System's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.051)/(1+0.11) = 0.94684684684685
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=3.753*11.6156
=43.59

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(43.59-21.58)/43.59
=50.49 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Columbia Banking System  (NAS:COLB) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Columbia Banking System Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Columbia Banking System's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Columbia Banking System (Columbia Banking System) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1301 A Street, Tacoma, WA, USA, 98402-2156
Columbia Banking System Inc is a registered bank holding company. The company operates through its wholly-owned banking subsidiary, Columbia State Bank. The company provides a full range of banking services to small and midsize businesses, professionals, and individuals throughout Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. The bank has historically grown through a combination of organic growth and acquisitions. The bank's strategy s to provide our customers with the financial sophistication and product depth of a regional banking company. Its loan portfolio is diversified but primarily concentrated in commercial real estate and commercial business loans. A majority of the bank's net revenue is net interest income.
Executives
Drew K Anderson officer: Chief Administrative Officer C/O COLUMBIA BANKING SYSTEM, INC., 5885 MEADOWS ROAD, SUITE #400, LAKE OSWEGO OR 97035
Luis Machuca director ITXC CORP, 14600 NW GREENBRIER PARKWAY, BEAVERTON OR 97006
Maria M Pope director C/O PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC CO., 121 SW SALMON ST, PORTLAND OR 97204
Peggy Y Fowler director C/O PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, 121 SW SALMON ST, PORTLAND OR 97204
Terry Hilliard C. Iii director ONE SW COLUMBIA ST STE 1200, PORTLAND OR 97258
John F Schultz director C/O HEWLETT-PACKARD COMPANY, 3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Anddria Varnado director ONE SW COLUMBIA STREET STE 1200, PORTLAND OR 97258
Torran B Nixon officer: Senior Executive VP ONE SW COLUMBIA STREET STE 1200, PORTLAND OR 97258
Ron L Farnsworth officer: Chief Financial Officer 200 SW MARKET ST STE 1900, PORTLAND OR 97201
Andrew H Ognall officer: IMO General Counsel ONE SW COLUMBIA ST STE 1200, PORTLAND OR 97258
Frank Namdar officer: Chief Credit Officer ONE SW COLUMBIA STREET STE 1200, PORTLAND OR 97258
Lisa M White officer: PAO & Corporate Controller 9285 NE TANASBOURNE DRIVE, HILLSBORO OR 97124
O'haver Cort L director, officer: Executive Chairman ONE SW COLUMBIA ST STE 1200, PORTLAND OR 97258
Sheri Burns officer: Chief Human Resources Officer C/O COLUMBIA BANKING SYSTEM, INC., 450 NW 114TH AVENUE, PORTLAND OR 97229
Aaron James Deer officer: EVP Chief Financial Officer 1301 A STREET, TACOMA WA 98402