Columbia Banking System (Columbia Banking System) Predictability Rank

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What is Columbia Banking System Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Columbia Banking System Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Columbia Banking System (Columbia Banking System) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Columbia Banking System Inc (NAS:COLB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1301 A Street, Tacoma, WA, USA, 98402-2156

Website

https://www.columbiabank.com

Columbia Banking System Inc is a registered bank holding company. The company operates through its wholly-owned banking subsidiary, Columbia State Bank. The company provides a full range of banking services to small and midsize businesses, professionals, and individuals throughout Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. The bank has historically grown through a combination of organic growth and acquisitions. The bank's strategy s to provide our customers with the financial sophistication and product depth of a regional banking company. Its loan portfolio is diversified but primarily concentrated in commercial real estate and commercial business loans. A majority of the bank's net revenue is net interest income.

Executives

Drew K Anderson	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	C/O COLUMBIA BANKING SYSTEM, INC., 5885 MEADOWS ROAD, SUITE #400, LAKE OSWEGO OR 97035
Luis Machuca	director	ITXC CORP, 14600 NW GREENBRIER PARKWAY, BEAVERTON OR 97006
Maria M Pope	director	C/O PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC CO., 121 SW SALMON ST, PORTLAND OR 97204
Peggy Y Fowler	director	C/O PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, 121 SW SALMON ST, PORTLAND OR 97204
Terry Hilliard C. Iii	director	ONE SW COLUMBIA ST STE 1200, PORTLAND OR 97258
John F Schultz	director	C/O HEWLETT-PACKARD COMPANY, 3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Anddria Varnado	director	ONE SW COLUMBIA STREET STE 1200, PORTLAND OR 97258
Torran B Nixon	officer: Senior Executive VP	ONE SW COLUMBIA STREET STE 1200, PORTLAND OR 97258
Ron L Farnsworth	officer: Chief Financial Officer	200 SW MARKET ST STE 1900, PORTLAND OR 97201
Andrew H Ognall	officer: IMO General Counsel	ONE SW COLUMBIA ST STE 1200, PORTLAND OR 97258
Frank Namdar	officer: Chief Credit Officer	ONE SW COLUMBIA STREET STE 1200, PORTLAND OR 97258
Lisa M White	officer: PAO & Corporate Controller	9285 NE TANASBOURNE DRIVE, HILLSBORO OR 97124
O'haver Cort L	director, officer: Executive Chairman	ONE SW COLUMBIA ST STE 1200, PORTLAND OR 97258
Sheri Burns	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O COLUMBIA BANKING SYSTEM, INC., 450 NW 114TH AVENUE, PORTLAND OR 97229
Aaron James Deer	officer: EVP Chief Financial Officer	1301 A STREET, TACOMA WA 98402