General Motors Co (General Motors Co) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $-85.91 (As of Apr. 25, 2024)

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What is General Motors Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-04-25), General Motors Co's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-85.91.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

General Motors Co's Predictability Rank is 1.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for General Motors Co is N/A.

The industry rank for General Motors Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

GM's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Vehicles & Parts industry.
Industry Median: 0.87
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

General Motors Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for General Motors Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

General Motors Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

General Motors Co Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

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-72.05

General Motors Co Quarterly Data
	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23	Mar24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-	-	-	-72.05	-85.91

Competitive Comparison of General Motors Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Auto Manufacturers subindustry, General Motors Co's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

General Motors Co's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Vehicles & Parts Industry

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, General Motors Co's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where General Motors Co's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.

General Motors Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.70%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 15.80%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> General Motors Co's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 5 years was 15.80%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 15.80%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-3.644.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

General Motors Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.158)/(1+0.11) = 1.0432432432432
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

-3.644

23.5755

-85.91

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(-85.91	-	45.62)	/	-85.91
	=	N/A

General Motors Co (NYSE:GM) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

General Motors Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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General Motors Co (General Motors Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » General Motors Co (NYSE:GM) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GM:Peru GM:Mexico 1GM:Italy 8GMd:UK 0R0E:UK 8GM:Germany 8GM:Germany 8GM:Germany 8GM:Germany GMCO34:Brazil GMOT:Austria

Address

300 Renaissance Center, Detroit, MI, USA, 48265-3000

Website

https://www.gm.com

General Motors Co. emerged from the bankruptcy of General Motors Corp. (old GM) in July 2009. GM has eight brands and operates under four segments: GM North America, GM International, Cruise, and GM Financial. The United States now has four brands instead of eight under old GM. The company regained its U.S. market share leader crown in 2022, after losing it to Toyota due to the chip shortage in 2021, with share up 170 basis points to 16.4%, a full percentage point ahead of Toyota. GM's Cruise autonomous vehicle arm has previously done driverless geofenced AV robotaxi services in San Francisco and other cities but stopped in late 2023 after an accident. GM owns over 80% of Cruise. GM Financial became the company's captive finance arm in October 2010 via the purchase of AmeriCredit.

Executives

Mark L Reuss	officer: Vice President	300 RENAISSANCE CENTER, M/C: 482-C25-A36, DETROIT MI 48265-3000
Jan E Tighe	director	C/O GOLDMAN SACHS & CO. LLC, 200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Rory Harvey	officer: Executive Vice President	300 RENAISSANCE CENTER, M/C: 482-C24-A68, DETROIT MI 48265
Michael Robert Abbott	officer: Executive Vice President	300 RENAISSANCE CENTER, M/C: 482-C24-A68, DETROIT MI 48265
Paul A Jacobson	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	300 RENAISSANCE CENTER, M/C: 482-C24-A68, DETROIT MI 48265
Gerald Johnson	officer: Executive Vice President	300 RENAISSANCE CENTER, M/C: 482-C23-A68, DETROIT MI 48265
Stephen K. Carlisle	officer: Executive Vice President	300 RENAISSANCE CENTER, M/C: 482-C24-A68, DETROIT MI 48265
Jon Mcneill	director	45500 FREMONT BLVD, FREMONT CA 94538
Joanne C. Crevoiserat	director	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Wesley G Bush	director	333 MAPLE AVENUE EAST, #3080, VIENNA VA 22180
Julian G. Blissett	officer: Executive Vice President	300 RENAISSANCE CENTER, M/C: 482-C24-A68, DETROIT MI 48265
Patricia F Russo	director	300 RENAISSANCE CENTER, M/C: 482-C24-A68, DETROIT MI 48265
Douglas L Parks	officer: Executive Vice President	300 RENAISSANCE CENTER, M/C: 482-C23-A68, DETROIT MI 48265
Craig B. Glidden	officer: Executive Vice President & GC	300 RENAISSANCE CENTER., M/C: 482-C25-A36, DETROIT MI 48265-3000
Christopher Hatto	officer: VP, Controller & CAO	27175 HAGGERTY ROAD, NOVI MI 49377