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Biogen Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $208.17 (As of Today)
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As of today (2021-10-26), Biogen's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $208.17.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Biogen's Predictability Rank is 3.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Biogen is -29.67%.


Biogen Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Biogen's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Biogen Annual Data
Trend Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 239.37 166.41 351.44 506.62 360.76

Biogen Quarterly Data
Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 563.29 360.76 292.80 237.32 208.17

Biogen Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 8%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $14.104.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Biogen's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.08) = 0.97222222222222
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.08) = 0.96296296296296

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=14.104*14.7595
=208.17

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(208.17-269.94)/208.17
=-29.67 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Biogen  (NAS:BIIB) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Biogen Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Biogen's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Biogen Business Description

Biogen logo
Industry
Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers NAICS : 325412 SIC : 2834
Address
225 Binney Street, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02142
Biogen and Idec merged in 2003, combining forces to market Biogen's multiple sclerosis drug Avonex and Idec's cancer drug Rituxan. Today, Rituxan and next-generation antibody Gazyva are marketed via a collaboration with Roche. Biogen also markets novel MS drugs Plegridy, Tysabri, Tecfidera, and Vumerity. In Japan, Biogen's MS portfolio is co-promoted by Eisai. Hemophilia therapies Eloctate and Alprolix (partnered with SOBI) were spun off as part of Bioverativ in 2017. Biogen has several drug candidates in phase 3 trials in neurology and neurodegenerative diseases and has launched Spinraza with partner Ionis. Aduhelm was approved as the firm's first Alzheimer's disease therapy in June 2021.
Executives
Mcdonnell Michael R officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer C/O IQVIA HOLDINGS INC. 83 WOOSTER HEIGHTS ROAD DANBURY CT 06810
Gregory Ginger officer: EVP, Human Resources C/O BIOGEN INC. 225 BINNEY ST. CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Kramer Robin officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer 999 VANDERBILT BEACH ROAD 3RD FLOOR NAPLES FL 34109
Sherwin Stephen A director C/O CELL GENESYS, INC. 500 FORBES BLVD. SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Hawkins William A director MEDTRONIC INC 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY, MS LC310 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432-5604
Dorsa Caroline director BIOGEN INC. 225 BINNEY ST. CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Papadopoulos Stelios director 3 SOMERSET DRIVE SOUTH GREAT NECK NY 11020
Pangia Robert W director 3965 FREEDOM CIRCLE SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Leaming Nancy director C/O HOLOGIC INC BEDFORD MA 01730
Rowinsky Eric K director IMCLONE SYSTEMS INCORPORATED 180 VARICK STREET, 6TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10014
Denner Alexander J director C/O SARISSA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP 660 STEAMBOAT ROAD, 3RD FLOOR GREENWICH CT 06830
Posner Brian S director 14 CAMBRIDGE CENTER CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Mulligan Richard director C/O ICAHN CAPITAL LP 767 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 4700 NEW YORK NY 10153
Mantas Jesus B director BIOGEN INC. 225 BINNEY STREET CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Galdes Alphonse officer: EVP Pharmaceutical Oper & Tech BIOGEN INC. 225 BINNEY ST. CAMBRIDGE MA 02142

Biogen Headlines

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