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VistaGen Therapeutics Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $-2.48 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-05-18), VistaGen Therapeutics's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-2.48.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

VistaGen Therapeutics's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for VistaGen Therapeutics is N/A.

The industry rank for VistaGen Therapeutics's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:


VistaGen Therapeutics Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for VistaGen Therapeutics's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

VistaGen Therapeutics Annual Data
Trend Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Mar17 Mar18 Mar19 Mar20 Mar21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

VistaGen Therapeutics Quarterly Data
Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

VistaGen Therapeutics Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 6.30%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 6.30% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 6.30%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-0.182.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

VistaGen Therapeutics's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.063)/(1+0.1) = 0.96636363636364
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=-0.182*13.6098
=-2.48

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(-2.48-1.20)/-2.48
=N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


VistaGen Therapeutics  (NAS:VTGN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


VistaGen Therapeutics Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of VistaGen Therapeutics's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


VistaGen Therapeutics Business Description

VistaGen Therapeutics logo
Industry
Healthcare » Biotechnology NAICS : 325412 SIC : 2834
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
343 Allerton Avenue, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080
VistaGen Therapeutics Inc is a biotechnology firm. The company is in its clinical stage and engaged in developing and commercializing product candidates for patients with diseases and disorders involving the central nervous system. Its lead product candidate, AV-101, is an orally available prodrug candidate in Phase II development, initially for the adjunctive treatment of a major depressive disorder in patients with an inadequate response to standard antidepressants. The PH94B is a novel neuroactive nasal spray with therapeutic potential in a wide range of indications involving anxiety or phobia; PH10 is an odorless, fast-acting synthetic neurosteroid for neuropsychiatric indications involving depression.
Executives
Saxe Jon S director FIRST HORIZON PHARMACEUTICAL CORP 660 HEMBREE PKWY STE 106 ROSWELL GA 30076
Dotson Jerrold Duane officer: VP, CFO AND SECRETARY 5 CENTERPOINTE DRIVE SUITE 400 LAKE OSWEGO OR 97035
Singh Shawn director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER C/O VISTAGEN THERAPEUTICS, INC. 343 ALLERTON AVENUE SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Snodgrass H. Ralph director, officer: PRES./CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER 384 OYSTER POINT BLVD. SUITE 8 SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Smith Mark Alan officer: CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER 343 ALLERTON AVENUE SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Mcpartland Mark A. officer: VP CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT C/O VISTAGEN THERAPEUTICS, INC. 343 ALLERTON AVENUE SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Gin Jerry B director 343 ALLERTON AVE SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Underdown Brian J. director C/O LUMIRA CAPITAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT 141 ADELAIDE ST. WEST, SUITE 770 TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA M5H 3L5 A6 00000
Cunningham Ann Michelle director 255 N CALDWELL CIRCLE DOWNINGTOWN PA 19335
Rice A. Franklin officer: VP CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT 384 OYSTER POINT BLVD. SUITE 8 SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Bonfiglio Gregory A. director 384 OYSTER POINT BOULEVARD, NO. 8 SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Platinum Long Term Growth Vii, Llc 10 percent owner 152 WEST 57TH STREET 4TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10019
Cato Holding Co 10 percent owner 4364 SOUTH ALSTON AVENUE DURHAM NC 27713
Cato Allen Easley 10 percent owner 4364 SOUTH ALSTON AVENUE DURHAM NC 27713
Jones Stephanie director, 10 percent owner, officer: PRESIDENT 13834 W. HOYT ROAD RATHDRUM ID 83858

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