Market Cap : 247.83 M | Enterprise Value : 165.21 M | PE Ratio : At Loss | PB Ratio : 3.03 |
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As of today (2022-05-18), VistaGen Therapeutics's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-2.48.
Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
VistaGen Therapeutics's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.
Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for VistaGen Therapeutics is N/A.
The industry rank for VistaGen Therapeutics's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:
The historical data trend for VistaGen Therapeutics's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.
Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 6.30%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. =>
Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 6.30% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 6.30%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-0.182.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
VistaGen Therapeutics's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) | = | Free Cash Flow per Share | * | {[(1+g1)/(1+d) | + | (1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2 | + | ... | + | (1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10] |
+ | (1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10 | * | [(1+g2)/(1+d) | + | (1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2 | + | ... | + | (1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]} |
set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.063)/(1+0.1) = 0.96636363636364
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) | = | Free Cash Flow per Share | * | {[x | + | x^2 | + | ... | + | x^10] | + | x^10 | * | [y | + | y^2 | + | ... | + | y^10]} |
= | Free Cash Flow per Share | * | [x | * | (1-x^10) | / | (1-x) | + | x^10 | * | y | * | (1-y^10) | / | (1-y)] | |||||
= | -0.182 | * | 13.6098 | |||||||||||||||||
= | -2.48 |
Margin of Safety (FCF Based) | = | (Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) | - | Current Price) | / | Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) |
= | (-2.48 | - | 1.20) | / | -2.48 | |
= | N/A |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.
What you need to know about the DCF model:
1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings powerYou can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of VistaGen Therapeutics's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Saxe Jon S | director | FIRST HORIZON PHARMACEUTICAL CORP 660 HEMBREE PKWY STE 106 ROSWELL GA 30076 |
Dotson Jerrold Duane | officer: VP, CFO AND SECRETARY | 5 CENTERPOINTE DRIVE SUITE 400 LAKE OSWEGO OR 97035 |
Singh Shawn | director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER | C/O VISTAGEN THERAPEUTICS, INC. 343 ALLERTON AVENUE SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
Snodgrass H. Ralph | director, officer: PRES./CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER | 384 OYSTER POINT BLVD. SUITE 8 SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
Smith Mark Alan | officer: CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER | 343 ALLERTON AVENUE SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
Mcpartland Mark A. | officer: VP CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT | C/O VISTAGEN THERAPEUTICS, INC. 343 ALLERTON AVENUE SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
Gin Jerry B | director | 343 ALLERTON AVE SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
Underdown Brian J. | director | C/O LUMIRA CAPITAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT 141 ADELAIDE ST. WEST, SUITE 770 TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA M5H 3L5 A6 00000 |
Cunningham Ann Michelle | director | 255 N CALDWELL CIRCLE DOWNINGTOWN PA 19335 |
Rice A. Franklin | officer: VP CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT | 384 OYSTER POINT BLVD. SUITE 8 SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
Bonfiglio Gregory A. | director | 384 OYSTER POINT BOULEVARD, NO. 8 SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
Platinum Long Term Growth Vii, Llc | 10 percent owner | 152 WEST 57TH STREET 4TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10019 |
Cato Holding Co | 10 percent owner | 4364 SOUTH ALSTON AVENUE DURHAM NC 27713 |
Cato Allen Easley | 10 percent owner | 4364 SOUTH ALSTON AVENUE DURHAM NC 27713 |
Jones Stephanie | director, 10 percent owner, officer: PRESIDENT | 13834 W. HOYT ROAD RATHDRUM ID 83858 |
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