>
Switch to:

Beazer Homes USA Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $-39.96 (As of Today)
View and export this data going back to 1994. Start your Free Trial

As of today (2022-05-22), Beazer Homes USA's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-39.96.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Beazer Homes USA's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Beazer Homes USA is N/A.

The industry rank for Beazer Homes USA's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:


Beazer Homes USA Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Beazer Homes USA's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Beazer Homes USA Annual Data
Trend Sep12 Sep13 Sep14 Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20 Sep21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Beazer Homes USA Quarterly Data
Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Beazer Homes USA Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-2.949.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Beazer Homes USA's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.09) = 0.96330275229358
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=-2.949*13.5514
=-39.96

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(-39.96-15.22)/-39.96
=N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Beazer Homes USA  (NYSE:BZH) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Beazer Homes USA Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Beazer Homes USA's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Beazer Homes USA Business Description

Beazer Homes USA logo
Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1000 Abernathy Road, Suite 260, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30328
Beazer Homes USA Inc is an American construction company that focuses on residential construction. The company specializes in single-family housing and multi-unit building construction in over 13 states and over 22 metro markets. Beazer Homes builds homes and communities that target first-time, move-up, and luxury homebuyers with an average selling price of roughly $300,000. From a geographic perspective, home sales in the western and eastern United States have been the leading sources of revenue for the company. Key metro areas include Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Orlando, and Tampa. The company also focuses on land purchasing and development to support future construction efforts as well as mortgage services for its homebuyers.
Executives
Salomon Robert L. officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer 5535 LEXINGTON WOODS LANE ALPHARETTA GA 30005
Zelnak Stephen P Jr director MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS INC 2710 WYCLIFF ROAD RALEIGH NC 27607
Acton Elizabeth S director 5408 WALDENHILL COURT SUPERIOR TOWNSHIP MI 48198
Orser Peter M director 1000 ABERNATHY ROAD SUITE 260 ATLANTA GA 30328
Shepherd Danny R director VULCAN MATERIALS COMPANY 1200 URBAN CENTER DRIVE BIRMINGHAM AL 35242
Spitz David J director C/O CHANNELADVISOR CORPORATION 2701 AERIAL CENTER PARKWAY MORRISVILLE NC 27568
Belknap Keith L Jr officer: EVP, General Counsel 3585 ENGINEERING DRIVE SUITE 100 NORCROSS GA 30092
Provencio Norma Ann director 2150 ST. ELZEAR BLVD. WEST LAVAL A8 H7L 4A8
Merrill Allan P director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO BEAZER HOMES 1000 ABERNATHY RD, SUITE 1200 ATLANTA GA 30328
Winkle C Christian director ONE RAVINIA DRIVE STE 1500 ATLANTA GA 30346
Alpert Laurent director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: ALPERT LAURENT a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Beazer Brian C director C/O NUMEREX 1600 PARKWOOD CIRCLE #200 ATLANTA GA 30339-2119
Leemputte Peter G director CHICAGO TITLE CORP 171 N CLARK ST CHICAGO IL 80601
Khoury Kenneth F officer: Administration BEAZER HOMES 1000 ABERNATHY RD, SUITE 1200 ATLANTA GA 30328
Solari Larry T director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SOLARI LARRY T a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}

Beazer Homes USA Headlines

Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)