GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » USA » NYSE » Crane Co (NYSE:CR) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Switch to:

Crane Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $87.74 (As of Today)
View and export this data going back to 1985. Start your Free Trial

As of today (2022-08-11), Crane Co's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $87.74.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Crane Co's Predictability Rank is 3-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Crane Co is -15.44%.

The industry rank for Crane Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

CR's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked better than
65.46% of 194 companies
in the Industrial Products industry
Industry Median: 1.53 vs CR: 1.15

Crane Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Crane Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Crane Co Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - 87.94 - - 153.15

Crane Co Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - 153.15 103.67 87.74

Crane Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 9.60%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 9.60% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 9.60%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $4.732.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Crane Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.096)/(1+0.09) = 1.005504587156
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=4.732*18.542
=87.74

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(87.74-101.29)/87.74
=-15.44 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Crane Co  (NYSE:CR) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Crane Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Crane Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Crane Co Business Description

Crane Co logo
Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
100 First Stamford Place, Stamford, CT, USA, 06902
Crane Co. is a diversified industrial firm manufacturing a broad range of products, including valves, vending equipment, payment acceptance equipment, and aerospace components. The firm's business is organized into three segments: process flow technologies, payment & merchandising technologies, and aerospace & electronics. Headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, Crane has approximately 11,000 employees and operates in 32 countries. Crane generated approximately $3.2 billion in revenue and $501 million in adjusted operating income in 2021.
Executives
Grisham Scott A. officer: SVP Bus. Dev. & Strategy 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE STAMFORD CT 06902
Polmanteer Tamara S. officer: Senior Vice President, CHRO 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE STAMFORD CT 06902
Stroup John S director 1 N. BRENTWOOD BLVD. SUITE 1500 ST. LOUIS MO 63105
Alcala Alejandro officer: Senior Vice President 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE STAMFORD CT 06902
Cristiano Christina officer: V.P., Controller & PAO 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE STAMFORD CT 06902
Dinkins Michael director 6166 NW 85TH WAY PARKLAND FL 33067
Gallo Kurt F. officer: Sr. VP, Payment & Merch. Tech. 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE STAMFORD CT 06902
D'iorio Anthony M. officer: General Counsel & Secretary 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE STAMFORD CT 06902
Haime Ellen Mcclain director 767 THIRD AVE 34TH FL NEW YORK NY 10022
Cook Donald G director 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE STAMFORD CT 06902
Pollino Jennifer director C/O GOODRICH CORPORATION 2730 W. TYVOLA ROAD CHARLOTTE NC 28217
Benante Martin R director C/O CURTISS WRIGHT CORP 1200 WALL ST WEST LYNDHURST NJ 07071
Scannell Peter O director 66 FIELD POINT ROAD GREENWICH CT 06830
Lindsay Ronald Carter director 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE STAMFORD CT 06902
Lochner Philip R director 699 LAKE AVENUE GREENWICH CT 06830

Crane Co Headlines

Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)