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EnerSys Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $93.04 (As of Today)
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As of today (2021-10-24), EnerSys's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $93.04.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

EnerSys's Predictability Rank is 3.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for EnerSys is 17.48%.


EnerSys Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for EnerSys's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

EnerSys Annual Data
Trend Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Mar17 Mar18 Mar19 Mar20 Mar21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 60.33 45.09 55.72 98.15 200.92

EnerSys Quarterly Data
Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 147.94 172.40 164.24 200.92 93.04

EnerSys Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 8%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 15.20%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 15.20% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 15.20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $3.092.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

EnerSys's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.152)/(1+0.08) = 1.0666666666667
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.08) = 0.96296296296296

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=3.092*30.0919
=93.04

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(93.04-76.78)/93.04
=17.48 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


EnerSys  (NYSE:ENS) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


EnerSys Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of EnerSys's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


EnerSys Business Description

EnerSys logo
Industry
Industrials » Industrial Products NAICS : 335911 SIC : 5063
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2366 Bernville Road, Reading, PA, USA, 19605
EnerSys provides stored energy solutions for industrial applications. It also manufactures and distributes energy systems solutions and motive power batteries, specialty batteries, battery chargers, power equipment, battery accessories and outdoor equipment enclosure solutions to customers worldwide. Energy Systems which combine enclosures, power conversion, power distribution and energy storage are used in the telecommunication and broadband, utility industries, uninterruptible power supplies, and numerous applications requiring stored energy solutions. Its segments include Energy Systems, Motive Power, and Specialty.
Executives
Katsaros Arthur T director 7201 HAMILTON BLVD ALLENTOWN PA 181951501
Tufano Paul J director C/O SOLECTRON CORPORATION 847 GIBRALTAR DR. MILPITAS CA 95035
Vargo Ronald P director 41 UNIVERSITY DRIVE, SUITE 202 NEWTOWN PA 18940
Kane Kerry M officer: VP, Corporate Controller & PAO 2366 BERNVILLE ROAD READING PA 19605
Magnus Robert director 2366 BERNVILLE ROAD READING PA 19605
Connors Nelda J director BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY MARLBOROUGH MA 01752-1234
Chung Hwan-yoon director METALMARK CAPITAL LLC 1177 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 40TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10036
Schmidtlein Michael J officer: Executive Vice President & CFO 2366 BERNVILLE ROAD READING PA 19605
Hoffen Howard I director 1585 BROADWAY NEW YORK NY 10036
Fludder Steven M director 264 NANTASKET ROAD HULL MA 02045
Shaffer David M director, officer: President & CEO C/O ENERSYS 2366 BERNVILLE ROAD READING PA 19605
Zogby Andrew M. officer: Pres. Energy Systems Global 2366 BERNVILLE ROAD READING PA 19605
Chan Caroline director 2366 BERNVILLE ROAD READING PA 19605
Lehman John F director 450 PARK AVENUE 6TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10022
Marlo Dennis S director 1130 BERKSHIRE BOULEVARD WYOMISSING PA 19610

EnerSys Headlines

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