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Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $42.43 (As of Today)
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As of today (2021-09-27), Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $42.43.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's Predictability Rank is 3-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings is -24.42%.


Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Annual Data
Trend Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - 9.54 0.74 37.73

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Quarterly Data
Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 8.91 29.20 37.73 47.67 42.43

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 8%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $2.875.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.08) = 0.97222222222222
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.08) = 0.96296296296296

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=2.875*14.7595
=42.43

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(42.43-52.79)/42.43
=-24.42 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings  (NYSE:KNX) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Business Description

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings logo
Industry
Industrials » Transportation NAICS : 484121 SIC : 4213
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
20002 North 19th Avenue, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85027
Knight-Swift Transportation is by far the largest asset-based full-truckload carrier in the United States. About 80% of revenue derives from asset-based truckload shipping operations (including for-hire dry van, refrigerated, and dedicated contract). The remainder stems from truck brokerage and other asset-light logistics services (8%), as well as intermodal (8%), which uses the Class-I railroads for the underlying movement of the firm's shipping containers and also offers drayage services.
Executives
Moyes Vickie 10 percent owner SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Moyes Jerry 10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% group SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Moyes Jerry & Vickie Family Trust 10 percent owner SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Garnreiter Michael director 6735 E. GREENWAY PARKWAY UNIT #2049 SCOTTSDALE AZ 85254
Nester Lyndee Moyes other: Member of 10% owner group PO BOX 1397 TOLLESON AZ 85353
Moyes Michael other: Member of 10% owner group SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Breen Shannon officer: Sr. VP Logistics/Intermodal 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85027
Flanagan Cary M officer: SVP and CAO SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Harrington Timothy Sean officer: Exec Vice Pres Sales 2200 NORTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85027
Knight Gary J director, officer: Vice Chairman PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: KNIGHT GARY J a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Knight Kevin P director, officer: Executive Chairman 5601 WEST BUCKEYE ROAD PHOENIX AZ 85043
Liu Michael K officer: Exec. VP of Ops, Knight Trans 5601 WEST BUCKEYE ROAD PHOENIX AZ 85043
Jackson David A director, officer: President and CEO PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: JACKSON DAVID A a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Yu Wayne officer: CAO of Knight Trans. Inc. 5601 WEST BUCKEYE ROAD PHOENIX AZ 85043
Carlson Todd F. officer: General Counsel and Secretary 5601 WEST BUCKEYE ROAD PHOENIX AZ 85043

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Headlines

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